All Cause Mortality in England & Wales (15 – 44y)

From The Office For Nobbled Statistics

I am trying to find robust estimates of the population of England & Wales by 5-year age band so I may have a stab at producing slides of standardised mortality rates for the period 2010 - present. Whilst I’ve nailed some reasonable figures for the weekly total population of England & Wales using linear interpolation and ARIMA time series modelling of ONS mid-year estimates since 1970, I’ve yet to factor these down into age group.

I’ve a figure of 21,399,050 head of population for the 15 – 44y age band (Statista 2020 MYE for England); assuming the proportion of young adults has remained largely invariant over the last decade we can then produce a first crude estimate for SMR and here it is…

This is a pretty noisy graph, as may be expected from weekly registered deaths that will be subject to administrative artefact as well as seasonal and other blips. Martians, when studying this slide, would invariably ask us what we meant by ‘pandemic’ and the answer is that pandemics are defined by sp…