An Enigma: Transmission Of Epidemic Influenza (part 6)

I attempt to shed light on the riddle that is seasonal influenza using my bag of spanners. Today I take a look at influenza in relation to all cause and respiratory death

I’m hoping my last article stirred the blood somewhat, if not the grey matter! Back in 1918-19 it looks like something targeted young English and Welshmen men of prime serving age (25 – 34 years) at the end of the war to end all wars. However, coupled with this is the mightily awkward problem of nailing sub-population estimates with any kind of precision. The monkey in my mind is reminding me that wacko estimates – particularly those made during a very fluid time for the nations of England & Wales - could be a driving factor. That is to say, those astronomical mortality rates may partly be an illusion.

With that unsavoury thought in mind I thought I’d abandon ONS population estimates altogether and flip to deriving influenza mortality as a percentage of respiratory death, and as a percentage of all cause death. This trick removes the impact of sub-population wacko from the equation and essentially adjusts for a whole raft of socio-economic factors we can’t possibly ever hope to determi…