Base Hospitalisation Risk & Vaccination

Lessons from an undisclosed NHS Trust

Following on from my work on base hospitalisation risk for reports 19 and 20 I thought I’d bake this rather tasty slide this misty morning. Just to recap that base hospitalisation risk is derived from a consideration of hospitalisation rates for 884 different diagnoses and 77 procedures undertaken within the emergency department. These rates are combined on a case-by-case basis to form a mean risk score.

If we take adult (+18y) non-COVID admissions and break vaccination status down into never vaccinated, admitted after the first dose but with no further vaccination and admitted after multiple doses (second dose and/or booster) we get this interesting chart. We can clearly see that those who opt for multiple vaccinations possess the lowest mean hospitalisation scores in each and every age band. In contrast, those who opt for an initial jab then decide to go no further possess the highest mean hospitalisation scores in each and every age band. Sitting somewhere in the middle are those who decide to never get jabbed.

The conclusion I’m going to draw from this is that those keen on getting jabbed are generally healthier than those who are decidedly not keen. Being agile and healthy (possibly with own transport) is going to make it easier to trundle along to a vaccination centre. Then there are deprivation and other issues to consider. Those who decide only to receive one dose are clearly less healthy. Whether or not this is largely a result of vaccination or simply a function of underlying characteristics of this cohort remains to be seen.