In part 1 of this series I derived a variable I am calling Bed Loss Fraction (BLF), this being mean daily proportional bed occupancy across service providers within NHS England in comparison to the maximum mean daily beds occupied over the period 2020/w1 – 2022/w33 (128,079 beds).
We observed a worrisome BLF peak of 0.59 (59%) during 2020/w14 (w/e 3 April 2020) and noted the rapidity with which bed loss was achieved. Hailed as a necessary preparation for the computer-predicted incoming mega-wave of seriously sick folk, the irony is that the government took the decision to sacrifice hospitalised grannies whilst blaming folk for not wearing a mask (futile) or standing 2.0m from the next person in the queue (also futile). The mega-wave never came and bed occupancy crept back to ‘normal’ levels over a period of two years, with bed loss falling to its half-life value of 0.30 (30%) over a period of 8 - 9 weeks.
BLF & COVID
The relationship between BLF and COVID occupied beds is interesting, so I suggest we get the coffee on the stove, open something to nibble and have a squizz at this dual time series plot:
In the beginning we observe extreme bed loss and a modest wave of bed-ridden COVID cases. At this point I feel I ought to remind readers once again that a bed-ridden COVID case isn’t necessarily bed-ridden because of COVID. What we have here is a count of PTBs (positive test beds) whereby anybody in bed for any reason will count as a COVID ‘case’ if a single test result turns out to be positive. Thus, positive-testing mothers-to-be in maternity units will become COVID ‘cases’, as will those unfortunate enough to require hospitalisation in a mental health facility.
Substantial bed loss paired with elevated PTB counts will result in impoverished hospitals that will be chock-a-block full of COVID ‘cases’ and little else. As one senior nurse remarked to a disgruntled family whose relative was being treated like a ping pong ball, “all wards are COVID wards”. And so it was, and absurd protocols will have ensured any remaining staff will have been stretched to the limit managing yet another positive test result rather than thinking about symptomatically sick folk (like we traditionally do with disease). This is not to say there weren’t any severe cases - there most certainly were - but this wasn’t the norm. Several nurses have confided that their unit tested patients endlessly until they got a positive result, after which the standard of care declined as newly found ‘cases’ were wheeled into a corner. Talk to a Senior House Officer about any of this and they’ll snort through their nose. Evidence-based medicine isn’t what it was.