Do COVID Vaccines Work? (part 9)

I utilise data from an unknown NHS Trust to forge a staged multivariate logistic regression model in the assessment of vaccine efficacy

Crikey, we’re up to part 9 of this series already and there’s no end in sight, with countless wrinkles and avenues still to explore! We’ve just pipped past the summer solstice and we’re now into that period of shortening day length once again. Periods and cycles of all manner whirled through my holofractal individuated consciousness unit as I munched on my cornflakes this morning whilst cogitating on the difficulty of modelling in-hospital death with umpteen confounding factors. I asked myself if there was anything more that could be done to smooth the way a little – rolling the wicket prior to play as it were – and so I decided to take another look at how death stacked-up over time, and vaccine death in particular. By ‘vaccine death’ I mean those unfortunates souls who were vaccinated prior to death, with death arising from any and all causes. I reckoned some crayoning was in order, and flipped right back to the beginning to look at the variation in vaccinated death over time. Not in absolute terms, mind, but as a percentage of all in-hospital deaths to account for the steady slog back to normal levels of service provision. What I found got me thinking: