Estimating Daily People Tested (part 7)
Estimation of the number of people undergoing virus tests in England prior to de-duplication of data records (rev 1.1)
Belt & Braces
If you are going to accuse Her Majesty’s Government of not being able to count it’s always best to confirm that your own counting is on the mark. I shall thus pull down the pillar 1 and pillar counts of unique people tested each week from the England Test & Trace crew, add them together and stick the total on a plot along with values of uniquePeopleTestedBySpecimenDateRollingSum corresponding to the test and trace week ending date and values of the variable I have concocted through modelling. Herewith the results of getting my crayons out:
We observe a pleasing correspondence right up to the moment when testing hell broke out (self-inflicted nose poking at home, work, rest and play) with the introduction of lateral flow devices and home kits. After this point the UK GOV coronavirus dashboard team reckon on less unique people being tested on a rolling weekly basis compared to the weekly counts arising from the Test & Trace crew. Obviously the numbers are not going to precis…