Hospitalisation Rate For Adult Respiratory Conditions (part 3)

Lessons from an undisclosed NHS Trust

We may well ask how the hospitalisation rate for all adult (18y – 99y) respiratory admissions (non-COVID + COVID) compares historically and so I have baked this colourful little slide covering the period Jan 2017 – Sep 2021. There are quite a few things to pick out here starting with the exceptionally lean year of 2018. We may raise an eyebrow or two to learn that pre-pandemic hospitalisation rates during 2017 and 2019 matched or exceeded those of 2020 and 2021.

There is a most surge in rates for 2019 around week 5 onward that lasts until week 39 when rates once again fall back to 2017/18 levels. Even more intriguing is the week 39 decline from ~0.55 (55%) to ~0.25 (25%) is matched by a similar pattern for 2017. This is a strange precision! Also strange is the steady climb upward from week 45 of 2019 to meet the rate at the beginning of 2020 – I suspect that something was already happening before the authorities declared anything.

Despite the Delta scares and Omicron scares in the press…