John Dee's Almanac

John Dee's Almanac

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John Dee's Almanac
John Dee's Almanac
The PCR Test As A Predictor Of Acute Respiratory Conditions (part 3)

The PCR Test As A Predictor Of Acute Respiratory Conditions (part 3)

I utilise data from an unknown NHS Trust to determine the real-world value of a COVID-19 diagnosis in the EPR of in-hospital deaths

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John Dee
Jul 31, 2023
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John Dee's Almanac
John Dee's Almanac
The PCR Test As A Predictor Of Acute Respiratory Conditions (part 3)
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It would appear from part 2 of this series that what the PCR test has gone and done is paint a mirage on the canvas of respiratory illness, with two massive spikes of seeming COVID death that fail to translate into acute respiratory conditions. But how does my newly forged catch-all indicator variable - DDx_VIBAC - square with the acute respiratory condition flag (DDx_Acute)? Time for another cross-tabulation of those 19,457 in-hospital deaths:

Now this is interesting because I would have bet money on a stronger relationship. We observe that 2,216/3,898 (56.8%) of cases with an alleged respiratory pathogen of some sort were also diagnosed with an acute respiratory condition such as pneumonia, ARDS or respiratory arrest. Ideally we would take that 43.2% as a measure of the resilience of the human body supported by advances in modern medicine, but we can’t rule out false positives at this stage. This table also reveals 1,948/15,559 (12.5%) of deaths with an associated acute respiratory c…

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