The PCR Test As A Predictor Of Acute Respiratory Conditions (part 3)
I utilise data from an unknown NHS Trust to determine the real-world value of a COVID-19 diagnosis in the EPR of in-hospital deaths
It would appear from part 2 of this series that what the PCR test has gone and done is paint a mirage on the canvas of respiratory illness, with two massive spikes of seeming COVID death that fail to translate into acute respiratory conditions. But how does my newly forged catch-all indicator variable - DDx_VIBAC - square with the acute respiratory condition flag (DDx_Acute)? Time for another cross-tabulation of those 19,457 in-hospital deaths:
Now this is interesting because I would have bet money on a stronger relationship. We observe that 2,216/3,898 (56.8%) of cases with an alleged respiratory pathogen of some sort were also diagnosed with an acute respiratory condition such as pneumonia, ARDS or respiratory arrest. Ideally we would take that 43.2% as a measure of the resilience of the human body supported by advances in modern medicine, but we can’t rule out false positives at this stage. This table also reveals 1,948/15,559 (12.5%) of deaths with an associated acute respiratory c…