The Time Trap

Stuff that creeps up and catches folk unaware by day and by night (rev 1.1)

In Chicken Or Egg? I wrote these three sentences:

Before we get stuck in there are a couple of points to note. Firstly, the small print mumbles on about first order differential which is a fancy way of saying I’ve analysed the day-on-day variations in rolling case counts and tests. This is important because it removes artefactual correlation introduced by things changing slowly over time - an analytical trap that I may well cover in a future newsletter.

The words ‘differential’, ‘first order’, ‘difference’ and ‘differencing’ keep cropping up in my newsletters along with references to Nicolas Cage and swimming pool drownings so this morning I am going to elucidate. This will call for the big pot and the family tin of assorted biscuits.

A long time ago in a parallel universe I wrote a short note called The Time Trap that you may find sitting here. Although the note originated at a point in my analytical career when I was exposing globalist myth about climate change the same principles appl…