Trends In Causality for England, 2014/w23 – 2022/w46 (part 3)

Statistical analysis of a dataset obtained under FOI by Joel Smalley revealing weekly deaths by date of death, age, sex and primary cause of death

You’ll once again need to refer back to part 1 of this series for all the background gubbins. I shall now slice some sourdough and get that under the grill, warm the pot and continue with the slide show…

Cause #14: Diseases of the skin & subcutaneous tissue

This looked pretty much like a random walk to me but it isn’t, for a non-parametric one sample test for randomness (runs test) returned a statistically significant probability of p<0.001, and linear regression revealed a modest upward trend. This may be worth exploring further.

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Cause #15: Factors influencing health status

The full title for chapter XXI is factors influencing health status and contact with health services, which offers more of an explanation for what these deaths are about. If I flip through block Z00 – Z99 there are a fair few codes concerned with the action of observation, screening and examination e.g. Z03.1 Observation for suspected malignant neoplasm.

Of interest are codes concerning communicable diseases (e.g. Z22.5 carrier of viral hepatitis) and immunization (e.g. Z23.5 Need for immunization against tetanus alone). Then there are miscellaneous codes covering supervision (largely of pregnancy), birth, dialysis, therapies, transfusion, palliative care, convalescence, personal/family history and fitting/adjustment of prostheses. There are a few curious entries, arguably the most curious of which is Z72.6 gambling and betting. A mixed bag, then, and a series that appears to be in steady decline.

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Cause #16: Congenital

The full title for chapter XVII is Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities, and this covers everything from Q00.0 Anacephaly to Q99.9 Chromosomal abnormality, unspecified. Again this is one of those series that looks random but is not (p=0.001; Wald–Wolfowitz runs test), so I’m going to have to get the towels out. My eyeballs suggest a step-like decline in the rate during mid 2020 which again points to coding shenanigans.

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Cause #17: Diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism

The title for chapter III is somewhat of a mouthful: Diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism. With a code block stretching from D50 – D89 this chapter covers benign neoplasm and carcinomas as well as anaemias, deficiencies, autoimmune disorders, immunodeficiences, hereditary conditions and diseases of the spleen. Again this is one of those series that looks like a random walk but is not (p<0.001; Wald–Wolfowitz runs test), so I’m going to have to set aside time to examine this series further.

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Cause #18: Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period

Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period covers everything from P00.0 Fetus and newborn affected by maternal hypertensive disorder to P96.9 Condition originating in the perinatal period, unspecified. It is important to note these are conditions giving rise to death of the child and not the mother. As we may observe from the y-axis scaling and castellated appearance of the time series these are rare events that appear to have been in gradual decline; though I cannot vouch for the completeness of 2022 data.

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Cause #19: Diseases of the ear & mastoid process

A time series for rare events that is not giving me cause for concern, so I shall set this aside.

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Cause #20: Pregnancy, childbirth & puerperium

A time series for rare events that is giving me cause for concern owing to that cluster of deaths centred on 2021. I shall be looking at this series in more detail in a future article.

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Cause #21: Diseases of the eye & adnexa

The rarest events of them all. There’s not much to go on here so I’ll not pursue this analysis any further.

Coffee & Cogitation

Well, it sure looks like I’ve got my work cut out. We’ve got a suspicious multi-causal spike to consider, missing deaths for 2022 to consider, dodgy coding to consider, age effects to consider, and external factors to unpack - and that’s before we get on to deriving excess death by cause then going on to model vaccine harm. There is certainly a great deal to think about, even after this first pass with a slide show of crude mortality for combined age and sex.

I guess the best course of action will be to take a single cause and concentrate on squeezing the stats out of this in descending order of incidence within the population, as per the slide show. There may be three chapters I can drop, leaving a giddy total of 18 articles for which I shall delve into age and sex effects as well as coding issues, lockdown harms and vaccine issues. We are going to need a tea urn, let alone a pot!

Before I roll this monster out I want to pen a third and final part for flip, flop flu because it raises a number of issues that all stem from the desire of the WHO to control every aspect of the clinical narrative in a one-size-fits-all sort of way. We might need to start spitting out the phrase medical communism (medical fascism is already taken).

Kettle On!