Using ARIMA To Investigate COVID Death (part 2)
Cranking the handle on the latest daily data sitting in the UK GOV coronavirus dashboard
In the first part of this series I produced an ARIMA model for the prediction of new daily certified COVID deaths during the first wave of the pandemic in England using new daily COVID case counts as an independent predictor. This turned out to be highly statistically significant as we may expect (p<0.001) but yielded a modest effect size, with the coef…