Weekly All Cause In-Hospital Deaths
Lessons from an undisclosed NHS Trust
In previous posts in this series we have been looking at trends in acute coronary syndrome and non-ischaemic cardiac admissions to A&E for those under 45 years of age as derived from the CDS dataset for an undisclosed UK NHS Trust, this being one of our larger Trusts. I promised to take a look at in-hospital deaths for a variety of cardiac causes and crunched the data accordingly.
What stopped me in my tracks was this peculiar result for all cause weekly in-hospital death for those under 45 years of age (slide #1). The big question we need to ask is where have all the deaths gone? The next big question we need to ask is where did the pandemic go? Whilst I can easily theorise that the pandemic didn’t hit the younger generations I can’t easily theorise away a bunch of missing deaths! Did these folk never make it to hospital? Did all manner of disease magically disappear? Did they stop working or commuting?
I decided to see if those aged 45 years and older held any clues as to this peculiar state of affairs (slide #2). We can see that first wave sticking out like a sore thumb, but just look at how well defined it is hitting a peak of 405 deaths/wk during 2020 week 15 (w/b 4th April). The so-called second wave doesn’t rise much above the usual seasonal norm, whereas the third wave tops the chart at 415 deaths/wk during 2021 week 4 (w/b 23rd Jan). Again look how sharp that peak is. Somehow we’ve managed to coordinate folk so they all die at the same time! After this whopper peak the rate settles down into something resembling the norm – I certainly don’t see anything odd.
This leaves us with a stinking great enigma. We could hypothesise that the vaccines are preventing road traffic accidents, hang-gliding accidents, and bike casualties. To that we’d have to add garden accidents, poisoning, intoxication and knife wounding as well as cancer, liver failure and all the rest. Alternatively we could hypothesise something else is going on that we haven’t yet figured. Unless we figure this puzzle this inexplicable drop in <45y death is going to be erroneously attributed to vaccine efficacy.