Care For A Mint?

A short note on PCR test specificity and false positive dishonesty

One of the trickier issues that can clobber any analysis is taking data at face value. By now I hope regular subscribers to my newsletters will have noted how weird little details and definitions sitting down in the fine print can snag the unwary. My favourite has got to be the daily count for COVID admissions to hospital, where we learn that ‘COVID’ does not necessarily mean sick with flu-like symptoms or even carrying any virus (false positive), and where ‘admission’ includes re-admissions as well as folk turning up in A&E under their own steam (and does not necessarily end in bed use, whether day or night bed), and where ‘hospital’ does not necessarily mean to a service provider that actually treats COVID cases (e.g. maternity or mental health unit). Those who have read some of my more formal reports will also recall that positive-testing admissions with flu-like symptoms may also be sent home the same day! People usually stand with an open mouth and puzzled expression when I relat…