Do COVID Vaccines Work? (part 4)

In this article I utilise data from an unknown NHS Trust and use split-file staged multivariate logistic regression in the prediction of vaccination status prior to death

In part 3 of this series we ended up considering split-file logistic regression models for the prediction of vaccination status prior to death using a fairly simple list of ingredients pulled from my pantry. The vaccines didn’t exactly come up smelling of roses and, in fact, came up smelling of something else.

That being said we saw a weeny drop of evidence that tentatively suggested benefit in terms of reduced incidence of COVID-19, with the odds ratio for a COVID diagnosis dropping from OR=0.428 (p<0.001) for the period 2021/w1 – 2021/w18 to OR=0.368 (p<0.001) for the period 2021/w19 – 2021/w37 in the prediction of folk who were vaccinated prior to death. The question here is whether this is indicating a genuine benefit arising from the boosters or whether those who were seriously sick with heart trouble, cancer etc but were testing positive for COVID (whether false positive or true positive) were refusing the jab or simply too sick to be vaccinated.

This is an important issue and I a…