Excess COVID Death (part 1)

Excess all cause death in heavily vaccinated nations is making global headlines. In this mini-series I derive a measure for excess COVID death.

I’m hoping the subtitle paints a clear picture of where I’m at and where I’m going with this series. Excess all cause death is soaring in the UK, across Europe and across the globe, so none of this is down to sheer coincidence or due to localised factors such as the aftermath of lockdown, ageing populations, closure of health services, poor diagnostics and so on. There is only one common factor linking excess young death with old across nations and continents and I’m pretty sure we can guess what this is. The elephant isn’t just in the room, it is standing on our toes and looking us in the eye. The response from the authorities and mainstream media is complacency and thin excuse, so we should expect more unnecessary deaths.

The Trampoline Of Excess

A common method for estimating excess death is to subtract a baseline value from observed counts on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. Providing the baseline is derived from historical values spanning five years or more, that can be said to be…