Excess Death Figures: Further Considerations (part 5)
Excess death is used to assess the impact of COVID, government policies and COVID therapies but this method is brimming with issues. In this article I delve further into differences between methods
In part 4 of this series I ended by stating that there were two logical steps to take next:
Compare estimates of excess death using my triple-jumper reference period of 2015 – 2019 with the ONS hopping frog reference period of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021.
Move the ARIMA historical time period forward a little from 2019/w52 to avoid an initial unwarranted jump in predicted deaths at the year end, then see what projections drop out.
Get the coffee on good and strong, for here we go exploring the murk of modelling…