Excess Deaths by Cause, England 2020/w1 – 2022/w46 (part 4)

Statistical analysis of a dataset obtained under FOI by Joel Smalley. In this article I present excess deaths for ICD-10 chapter V (F00 – F99): mental and behavioural disorders.

Please see part 1 of this series for background detail.

We now come to the fourth most frequent cause of death, this being the chapter that covers mental and behavioural disorders. This ICD-10 chapter covers everything from F00.0 Dementia in Alzheimer's disease with early onset to F99.X Mental disorder, not otherwise specified. In plain English we’re talking about conditions like delirium, dementia, drug addiction, alcoholism, solvent abuse, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, depression, phobia, anorexia, autism and Asperger’s.

The strangest coding is arguably F65.3 Voyeurism, and in this brave new era of personal pronouns, critical gender theory and the rise of the trans-man/trans-woman, readers might raise an eyebrow to learn that Transexualism (F64.0), Dual-role transvestism (F64.1), Gender identity disorder of childhood (F64.2), Other gender identity disorders (F64.3), Gender identity disorder, unspecified (F64.9), Multiple disorders of sexual preference (F65.6), Other disorders of sexual preference (F65.8), Disorder of sexual preference, unspecified (F65.9) and Egodystonic sexual orientation (F66.1) are all coded within chapter V of the tenth edition of the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems by WHO. Strange times indeed!

More Deaths To Come

When viewing these slides please do bear in mind that delays in processing (largely due to involvement of the coroner) mean counts as far back as January 2022 are likely to be under-reported, especially for the younger age groups. Because of the volume of slides I need to present and limits to email delivery I will keep commenting to a minimum.

Keep an eye out for the mysterious death spike of 2020/w15 (w/e 10 April) and a tailing-off of excess during 2022 for the younger age groups. Keep your eyes peeled for any persistent trends or offsets, whether this is characterised by a persistent positive or negative excess. Please do remember that vaccine harm will be one of many factors.

Let’s get that coffee pot on the stove and tuck straight in…

Mental & Behavioural Disorders By Age Band

A pretty Spartan series and a shame we haven’t got pre-pandemic years for comparison.

This looks like a random walk to me, this being confirmed by a Wald-Wolfowitz runs test (p=0.732). Nothing to see here, folks, (as far as I can tell) but then again we don’t have pre-pandemic data.

I suspect that tail-off for 2022 for these two slides is down to delays in the processing of death certificates. Excess does seem to build throughout 2020, in keeping with anecdotal evidence, with another surge in excess death passing through the winter 2021/22 season.

A different pattern to excess that is more stable over the three years suggesting that the younger 30 – 39y and 40 - 49y age groups were more vulnerable. A Wald-Wolfowitz runs test reveals this is not a random walk (p=0.014), so there are hidden patterns worth exploring further and I am going to suggest a gentle wave-like ripple lies beneath the scatter that offers a degree of seasonality.

So what’s going on here, then? Regular readers will realise by now that we’re once again looking at the mysterious death spike of 2020/w15 (w/e 10 April), this being a spike that appears for cancer, cardiac and respiratory death across multiple age groups. We should note that these are not COVID deaths for COVID deaths – even U07.2 suspected COVID death (virus unidentified) – were counted under chapter XXII.

I do not believe these deaths, that are spread across four ICD-10 chapters, that have occurred suddenly and all within in the same narrow time frame, can be attributed to erroneous diagnosis and/or sudden and inexplicable failure of the PCR test. This could be taken as evidence of iatrogenic death, which means these people were likely killed by whatever protocols, treatments and management procedures were put into place at the time. Then again there are many other issues to consider, so I sure need to find that catchy catch-all acronym… how about CHEC (Catastrophic Health Collapse)?

These three slides are truly shocking. We’re not looking at any kind of accident. We’re not looking at error. We’re looking at inexplicable and sudden death of elderly folk with mental health issues during the spring of 2020, and this in conjunction with the inexplicable and sudden death of those with cancer, cardiac and respiratory conditions all in the same couple of weeks. Just what the heck happened back then?

The final sorry slide. The only thing I can think of to cheer me up right now is a pot of organic red bush tea and a raid on the (currently prohibited) biscuit tin.

Kettle On!