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Dec 7, 2022
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John Dee's avatar

Whoops - typo! Will correct

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Dec 7, 2022
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John Dee's avatar

October 2019 - my wife's international school got hit after pupils returned to school from South Asian countries at half term. I came a cropper early December even down to COVID toes before COVID toes were a thing. Friends in the area were reporting a nasty flu-like illness from Oct - Dec. My analysis of A&E records for one of our biggest NHS Trusts reveals a massive spike in respiratory admissions Sep - Dec 2019 that was much bigger than anything seen during the pandemic proper.

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marlon1492's avatar

Oct 2020? Not 2019?

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John Dee's avatar

Typo - corrected!

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Joel Smalley's avatar

COVID hit the UK in autumn 2019 but did not become competitive in the virome until early spring. Even at that time, it was a rather ordinary, seasonal respiratory pathogen.

https://metatron.substack.com/p/an-important-message-for-future-generations

https://metatron.substack.com/p/another-important-message-for-future

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Joel Smalley's avatar

Are you using the bespoke dataset I requested so there is no issue using the erroneous registration date like the ONS does? Even so, you should still be aware that thousands of deaths are still missing, especially in the younger ages, going back over a year. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/15018dailydeathsbydateofoccurrence1june2014to31july2022bysingleyearofageandsexengland

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John Dee's avatar

I have got that and flip between them. I use DOR just to see if an approach looks promising. Yes, there's a truckload of missing deaths. In communications with an officer they recommended I don't bother with anything under 6 months! If I can nail a result despite all these drawbacks then I'm a happy bunny.

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John Dee's avatar

Latest version now updated - will crunch later this morning.

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Petra Liverani's avatar

And then there's the efficacy ... in the Hall of the Mountain King counterpoint.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-receipts-on-vaccine-efficacy

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Rob Kay's avatar

brilliant! (should be required viewing in all Health Centre waiting rooms)

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