Hunting For Vaccine Benefit (part 2)

Using UK GOV Dashboard Data And Keeping It Plain And Simple

In part 1 of this series I unearthed evidence of both vaccine benefit and vaccine harm in terms of decreased or increased numbers of COVID cases following dosing. Raw daily counts of new first episodes and new reinfections were studied using a time series technique called cross-correlation analysis, with results for the booster dose reaching statistical significance owing to the clarity of the signal. The dynamic relationship between dosing and case count across time is such that authorities may chose to focus on evidence of vaccine benefit or vaccine harm; thus, we may take the nature of results published so far as an indicator of professional integrity (lack thereof).

Sensible types will appreciate that case counts will rise and fall with the level of viral testing undertaken across the nation. Statistically-speaking test activity is a potential confounding factor in the analyses of raw counts made so far and so these were repeated using the rate variable of COVID cases per 100 viral…