Hunting For Vaccine Benefit (part 3)

Using UK GOV Dashboard Data And Keeping It Plain And Simple

In part 2 of this series I flipped from using raw daily case counts to using the rate variable of COVID cases per 100 viral tests in cross-correlation analysis against daily doses. Evidence of vaccine harm and vaccine benefit (defined in terms of increasing or decreasing positive test results) bobbed in and out of existence, with the booster giving the clearest signal. Whether this is the jab causing these changes directly or the response of the immune system to a foreign substance is open for debate.

Analysing a great sausage of data like this over time is problematic because so many things change. Not only do folk go get another jab but the rules for testing change, society changes and attitudes change. The virus mutates, the seasons change and the neighbour gets a new car.

The most obvious change comes from phased roll-out of vaccines from the elderly and vulnerable to the young and healthy; the impact of this becomes congealed into one sticky mess. For this reason (and because a sma…