Very nice. Does this mean that you now have good enough excess death data to be able to go back to the Vaccines and Death Question which you were having problems with? Is that what you mean by Part 10?
Yes indeed. Basically I was missing 7.5k excess deaths because I relied on ONS to get it right. I'm also drilling down into the Vx daily dosing profiles and exploring use of quinary age bands for a multivariate baseline. We are talking a lot of independent variables (300 - 400) but pilot runs using A.I. software to pick through the morass is getting me rather excited. Another 40 hours and I may have an answer!
Always a delight to see what mischief you come up with, and this is another potential stink-bomb under the teachers desk ;-)
But of course it isn't just about death, it is also about wrecked lives and dreams.
I interviewed a randomly selected young woman - possibly with a vaccine injury - recently, for a long running research study. Very sad situation. Leading athlete, champion in her sport, too. Mysterious virus, lost a stone, totally debilitated, doctors cannot find the cause
She's just started at Uni, but is probably going to lose the whole year.
Hard to say what the cause was, and I am no medic. Triple jabbed, (and has had mild Covid anyway) then devastating fatigue mainly and feeling awful. And that is just one random lassie, out of a study of 20 or so young folk: whats the chances, eh? She hadn't even made the connection, (many people don;t), but as soon as I asked, it sort of 'clicked'!
I think the biggest future problem is like the iceberg, lurking under the surface.
No, she knows nothing.. and the doctors haven't mentioned the vax$ , which is curiously neglectful - but then, they simply are not looking for it as a cause ... I mean it may be the glandular fever, (common in girls that age) but they have done the tests, and it isnt.
Nice one Rob. This morning I re-crunched all cause and non-COVID excess deaths using my own baselines and hope to get all this written up ready for the Monday article. The interesting thing about that BBC claim is that excess deaths were already high prior to 2022/w29 - w30 when the UK broke the 40°C record. In fact, excess reached a peak back in 2022/w19 prior to all the hot weather. As usual the BBC is being very selective about what it decides to tell people - come Monday you'll be able to check for yourself!
Good stuff. I'm going to cross-check the ONS claim using baselines that aren't fudged, and I'll take the analysis back to 2010 for good measure. If my fingers work fast enough I'll get an article out later today.
On reflection: why does heat, or cold, kill people?
I'm the sort of bloke who quite enjoys warm weather, and I've sweated it out in both the savannah of Northern Ghana and the deserts of Aquaba, Jordan recently in temperatures of 35= - 40C+ with no apparent ill-effects. I quite like very cold weather too, as its perfect for skiing. But as we say in Scotland, there is no such thing as bad weather, merely the wrong clothing. That said, like most folk, I much prefer dry hot air to cooler, but humid tropical weather, and I prefer dry ultra-cold weather to wet cold weather because of natural bodily regulation, So I think we are looking at complex multifactorial causes: poverty, bad housing, malnutrition, dehydration etc combined in the vast majority of cases with great old age.
Most of these ultra-frail people would die soon anyway: their deaths are just being brought forwards a few weeks.
I'm assuming that those who perish (barring accidents such as breaking down on some god-forsaken mountain and perishing of extreme thirst or frostbite) are mainly very elderly.
That's pretty much my own take Rob. I mentioned dehydration as a door to issues surrounding lack of appropriate care. I've got death data by crude age band going back to 2010 so will take a look at this as the mini study progresses.
I'm still trying to imagine under what circumstances a person might die of actual heatstroke: and that is usually athletes running marathons and SAS type military trainees with full kit crossing the Brecon Beacons in a heatwave with inadequate rests or hydration: that is either bullying, or self-inflicted heroics, ignorant, and entirely preventable.
In respect of elderly and frail folk, I think we can sometimes assign the primary cause down to sheer neglect, or the 'last straw on the camel's back' phenomena. I did nurse elderly folk in a cottage hospital for two years, and in these controlled and caring circumstances, virtually all deaths are entirely foreseeable as the body and spirit declines weeks and months in advance: experienced nurses know the signs, the only question left is when.
But it isn't always inadequate care: after my mothers death, my father, at the age of 99, just gave up: he was determined to follow her, had nothing left to achieve in his remarkable life, and refused all food and drink. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ronald-kay-obituary-w3vzqd2sd
LOL. I'll be writing up an article just on this topic. Prior to Vx rollout we don't see a relationship between max temps and excess death. People suffer, but there's no net national effect. Hide the top right point and you'll see excess death cropping up over a range of temps, especially in the post Vx period.
Great. Might be interesting (to me anyway, as a Scot) to compare E&W with Scotland: as we didn't have a heatwave, but nevertheless we very tragically did have a few Morguesworths of extra dead peeps.
Very nice. Does this mean that you now have good enough excess death data to be able to go back to the Vaccines and Death Question which you were having problems with? Is that what you mean by Part 10?
Yes indeed. Basically I was missing 7.5k excess deaths because I relied on ONS to get it right. I'm also drilling down into the Vx daily dosing profiles and exploring use of quinary age bands for a multivariate baseline. We are talking a lot of independent variables (300 - 400) but pilot runs using A.I. software to pick through the morass is getting me rather excited. Another 40 hours and I may have an answer!
Always a delight to see what mischief you come up with, and this is another potential stink-bomb under the teachers desk ;-)
But of course it isn't just about death, it is also about wrecked lives and dreams.
I interviewed a randomly selected young woman - possibly with a vaccine injury - recently, for a long running research study. Very sad situation. Leading athlete, champion in her sport, too. Mysterious virus, lost a stone, totally debilitated, doctors cannot find the cause
She's just started at Uni, but is probably going to lose the whole year.
Hard to say what the cause was, and I am no medic. Triple jabbed, (and has had mild Covid anyway) then devastating fatigue mainly and feeling awful. And that is just one random lassie, out of a study of 20 or so young folk: whats the chances, eh? She hadn't even made the connection, (many people don;t), but as soon as I asked, it sort of 'clicked'!
I think the biggest future problem is like the iceberg, lurking under the surface.
No, she knows nothing.. and the doctors haven't mentioned the vax$ , which is curiously neglectful - but then, they simply are not looking for it as a cause ... I mean it may be the glandular fever, (common in girls that age) but they have done the tests, and it isnt.
Heatwave accounts for 3,000 excess deaths, according to BBC
"People in older age groups with these conditions are most at risk during periods of intense heat.
The 3,000 extra deaths seen during the hottest days only go a small way to explaining the high rates of deaths seen this summer, however.
In England and Wales, there were about 16,000 more deaths from June to August than we might expect based on previous summers."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63171417
Nice one Rob. This morning I re-crunched all cause and non-COVID excess deaths using my own baselines and hope to get all this written up ready for the Monday article. The interesting thing about that BBC claim is that excess deaths were already high prior to 2022/w29 - w30 when the UK broke the 40°C record. In fact, excess reached a peak back in 2022/w19 prior to all the hot weather. As usual the BBC is being very selective about what it decides to tell people - come Monday you'll be able to check for yourself!
Here's another interesting response to the mysterious 'heatwave deaths conundrum': well worth reading.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/why-did-climate-change-kill-so-many
Good stuff. I'm going to cross-check the ONS claim using baselines that aren't fudged, and I'll take the analysis back to 2010 for good measure. If my fingers work fast enough I'll get an article out later today.
On reflection: why does heat, or cold, kill people?
I'm the sort of bloke who quite enjoys warm weather, and I've sweated it out in both the savannah of Northern Ghana and the deserts of Aquaba, Jordan recently in temperatures of 35= - 40C+ with no apparent ill-effects. I quite like very cold weather too, as its perfect for skiing. But as we say in Scotland, there is no such thing as bad weather, merely the wrong clothing. That said, like most folk, I much prefer dry hot air to cooler, but humid tropical weather, and I prefer dry ultra-cold weather to wet cold weather because of natural bodily regulation, So I think we are looking at complex multifactorial causes: poverty, bad housing, malnutrition, dehydration etc combined in the vast majority of cases with great old age.
Most of these ultra-frail people would die soon anyway: their deaths are just being brought forwards a few weeks.
I'm assuming that those who perish (barring accidents such as breaking down on some god-forsaken mountain and perishing of extreme thirst or frostbite) are mainly very elderly.
That's pretty much my own take Rob. I mentioned dehydration as a door to issues surrounding lack of appropriate care. I've got death data by crude age band going back to 2010 so will take a look at this as the mini study progresses.
I'm still trying to imagine under what circumstances a person might die of actual heatstroke: and that is usually athletes running marathons and SAS type military trainees with full kit crossing the Brecon Beacons in a heatwave with inadequate rests or hydration: that is either bullying, or self-inflicted heroics, ignorant, and entirely preventable.
In respect of elderly and frail folk, I think we can sometimes assign the primary cause down to sheer neglect, or the 'last straw on the camel's back' phenomena. I did nurse elderly folk in a cottage hospital for two years, and in these controlled and caring circumstances, virtually all deaths are entirely foreseeable as the body and spirit declines weeks and months in advance: experienced nurses know the signs, the only question left is when.
But it isn't always inadequate care: after my mothers death, my father, at the age of 99, just gave up: he was determined to follow her, had nothing left to achieve in his remarkable life, and refused all food and drink. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ronald-kay-obituary-w3vzqd2sd
I couldn't resist baking this for you...
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Cw6JO0nX7DPPUfJBzny3UyviIlm4aElZ/view?usp=sharing
Wow: that looks statistically very significant: maybe it is the wrong kind of heat, LOL!
LOL. I'll be writing up an article just on this topic. Prior to Vx rollout we don't see a relationship between max temps and excess death. People suffer, but there's no net national effect. Hide the top right point and you'll see excess death cropping up over a range of temps, especially in the post Vx period.
Great. Might be interesting (to me anyway, as a Scot) to compare E&W with Scotland: as we didn't have a heatwave, but nevertheless we very tragically did have a few Morguesworths of extra dead peeps.
A cracking idea. I'll finish my work for England then see if I can repeat the analysis for Scotland.
Nice work.