Thanks for having a look at this! I wonder if it is a waste of time trying to glean anything useful from it given Norman Fenton and Martin Neil's post, in addition to El Gato Malo’s post, on how obviously lame the ONS data is. It seems to me that trying to undo unknown data processing is going to be problematic and could easily lead to imaginary results.
Although, if one could demonstrate the obvious problems with the data as Fenton and Neil did in their letter to the head of statistics, that makes sense because then "we" can write another letter.
Yep, I reckon it's a total waste of time trying to do anything fancy, so I'm sticking to revealing the garbage. The file did its job and that was to elicit the obvious legacy media headlines that the vaccines are safe as houses. I'm not so sure folk are convinced these days, except perhaps those who'd rather hear soothing messages that what is swilling around them is fine and dandy.
“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that (49%) of American Adults believe it is likely that side effects of COVID-19 vaccines have caused a significant number of unexplained deaths, including 28% who think it’s Very Likely. Thirty-seven percent (37%) don’t say a significant number of deaths have been caused by vaccine side effects, including 17% who believe it’s Not At All Likely. Another 14% are not sure.”
“Twenty-eight percent (28%) of adults say they personally know someone whose death they think may have been caused by side effects of COVID-19 vaccines, while 61% don’t and another 10% are not sure.”
“Forty-eight percent (48%) of Americans believe there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, while 37% think people who worry about vaccine safety are spreading conspiracy theories. Another 15% are not sure.”
“Seventy-one percent (71%) say they have received a COVID-19 vaccination, while 26% have not.”
“Forty-six percent (46%) of adults who have gotten vaccinated against COVID-19 believe people who worry about vaccine safety are spreading conspiracy theories, but just 15% of the unvaccinated share that belief.”
“Republicans (60%) than Democrats (44%) or the unaffiliated (43%) think there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. However, there is less political difference in the number who suspect someone they know might have died from vaccine side effects – 33% of Democrats and 26% of both Republicans and the unaffiliated.”
I think it's important to note that what this really tells us is that the ONS dataset is biased, i.e. it is NOT a true representation of the population and that's all. It's not that they have underestimated the unvaccinated population, it's that their dataset, given the way it is filtered from the whole population, results in a subset that is not representative. In other words, it cannot be used to make inferences that apply to the general population. As such, it is not really useful for anything and doesn't really show anything one way or another! Unfortunately, this important fact did not make it down to the mainstream media hacks who used it to claim victory over us pesky anti-vaxxers! Meanwhile, people are still dying...
One obvious check the data is whacked is that the would-be VE against all-cause mortality is too high to be explained by covid deaths. Like 50% VE in April 2021:
Doesn’t Note 17 show the Nims dataset is also corrupted? Omitting >1,000 people who died shortly after vaccination. What an admission that is. How did it get past the censors?
It could well do - we've got sample bias within sample bias! I'm hoping others will hunt down inconsistencies with NIMS data capture, but it wouldn't surprise me since the task they face is immense.
This was one of my main hypotheses when we re-analysed the first release of this bulletin. There is an obvious upstream risk of the vaccination record not being updated if the death occurs so close to the injection. I covered it in one of my first ever Substacks in Dec 2021!! https://metatron.substack.com/p/cooking-the-books-ons-style-part. Almost 18 months later and the ONS is finally beginning to catch on...
So the governments of virtually all advanced countries wasted a trillion pounds or more of our taxpayers money on a variety of totally untested and untestable experimental public health interventions designed to defeat an illness no worse than the flu, that caused immense physical, economic and psychological harm and even death?
They make Elizabeth Holmes of Thanos look like a rank amateur.
Sir Humphrey would be extremely proud of their determined efforts on our behalf!
Lordships, Ladyships, Knighthoods and Damehoods are being handed out like smarties as we speak!
Rob Kay to them it was money well spent in training their populations.
None of it sat right with me from the get go, I knew I wasn’t getting the juice when they announced the race to develop them, my suspicions were confirmed in December 20/20 edition of chemistry world. It ran two articles about them, one had two doctors discussing how social distancing and masking would still have to continue, another one, a dr Gregory Poland who posted videos on YouTube stated in the article the safety and efficacy is unknown and is to be monitored during and throughout rollout to millions of people.
Well we’ve seen how that worked out haven’t we!
I have family and friends who have been damaged and all we have is government and media silence about it. One friend has been left with neurological and immune problems another neurological and heart which has forced them to shut their own business. Two family members have immune problems now who were perfectly fine before. All have one thing in common, all had at least two Pfizer, some more believing they were doing the right thing.
Parliaments total disregard and disrespect for injuries large or small is not even human, as my mother would say, “some people have the morals of an alley cat”. Even alleycats wouldn’t stoop as low as our politicians have.
I think the politicians were both profoundly ignorant and also badly misled by their halt-wit and deeply compromised 'science' advisers - in particular, Vallance, Whitty, Devi Shridar, and Ferguson. Sadly very few civil servants or politicians have studied science past O level: this is a well-known weakness of the British establishment - nearly all of whom study Latin Greek, Politics and Economics etc, meaning that they usually defer to the 'boffins'.
I can vouch for that - in my old career I spent a fair few years as a scientific advisor to Ministers, Secretaries of State and senior civil servants. The stories I could tell!
They aren't very good accountants either. (Parkinson's law assumes that they can't count big numbers, hence they spend far more time discussing trivial issues like car parking and perks than on building a large new Nuclear power plant.)
I worked for one of the UK's largest Regional Health Authorities with a budget of a Billion pounds per annum: it employed only three qualified accountants!
Rob Lay sounds about right, three accountants and fifty managers to walk around with clipboards to note what isn’t getting done by the none existent staff.
I wouldn't be quite that harsh: my small team of six was responsible for closing down ten huge Victorian asylums and transferring hundreds of million of pounds to local housing associations and councils to ensure a safe transfer of care to local services that were designed with the person at the centre: I can assure you that we took this massive task very seriously indeed.
When I joined the NHS in the early 1980's, hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people were still living 30 to a ward, in appalling circumstances: I know, because I started off by wiping bottoms for two years before moving into strategic management: we were not perfect, but we did our best.
You can add Van Tam to that list, I watched him give misleading information to a auditorium full of teenagers in the bbc Xmas lecture the year before last.
The government has wilfully ignored, shut down and banished any honest debate with anyone who points out problems or flaws, had the not done so you could have forgiven them for being misled.
So many things that were off were staring directly back at us, firstly we had three amigos all step out of a back room mixing as normal to then stand on three platforms spaced out. This went on for over a year where they were projecting a disease so contagious, so deadly was on the prowl yet they mixed daily without fear for their own safety or lives, I use to and still joke about how brave and selfless they were 😂.
They also introduced vaccine passports to punish those who didn’t wish to take it, this also rewarded those who did, people were treated as no more than lab rats using training behaviour.
When Boris’s party shenanigans came to light it proved they knew they were baffling the public with bullshit. People should not forgive or forget the destruction they have caused and rained down on the people and their country, all the while them and their cronies have and are still stuffing their pockets full of suffering taxpayers money.
I haven't done science past o level either though, and can't seem to get me poor head round person years, but I know which side is talking frollocks and who is making sense
Person years is a measurement that takes into account both the number of people in the study and the amount of time each person spends in the study. For example, a study that follows 1,000 people for one year would contain 1,000 person years of data. A study that follows 100 people for 10 years would also contain 1,000 person years of data.
If the study period is short, say just one month, then our sample of 1,000 people would contain 1,000 person months, which is equal to 83.3 person years (py).
When it comes to vaccination a person will go from unvaccinated to vaccinated at some point within the year. If they got vaccinated at the beginning of July then they'd have spent 6 months in the unvaccinated group and 6 months in the vaccinated group. If our sample of 1,000 people all did the same then we'd have 500 person months (41.7 py) in the unvaccinated group and 500 person months (41.7py) in the vaccinated group for a study period of just one year.
If the study period was two years, with the first year being vaccine free then the unvaccinated person year count would bump up to 83.3 + 41.7 = 125py for the unvaccinated group and remain at 41.7py for the vaccinated group, making a study total of 166.7py
If we knew the exact date of vaccination then we'd be able to calculate the number of unvaccinated days from the study period start and thus the number of vaccinated days to the study period end, then convert these into year fractions.
In this way we would arrive at a more accurate measure for the denominator in a rate calculation such as deaths per 100,000 person years - I hope this helps clear the mud!
Thanks for taking the time to explain, on top of everything else you do, it helps though still doing a bit of bog snorkeling. It feels to myun- mathsy brain that they've spent the last 7 months deVising the best formula for showing what they want shown, while simultaneously being hard to winkle through unless it's your field of expertise. 🤔
I share your views on the establishment. Having met a few of these bozos I now regard them with the utmost contempt.
However, there is one aspect of their stereotype that removes any excuse. My own background & tertiary education is in electronic & electrical engineering (maths, physics type stuff) and business (more maths, loads of stats etc.), but later in life I became interested in classical history. If TPTB were really classicists, they should be familiar with the many examples of exploitation, deceit, hubris and so on in the classical corpus. If nothing else, their education should have told them that their courtiers & other such hangers on were not to be trusted.
The only conclusion I can draw is that they knew exactly what they were doing and cannot therefore claim ignorance as an excuse. That awareness of human dynamics & history glimpsed through the eyes of the ancient Greeks & Romans should have raised at least as many red flags as a more scientific approach.
I've been close enough to 'The Establishment' to smell the whiff of their cigar smoke.. and I've gained a few insights into them. Many of them are deeply insecure: they found themselves in positions of 'power' (whatever that means) by birth, luck, hard graft or dirty deeds, and they all fear losing their position. Many of them have to watch their backs constantly: because they attract all kinds of nutjobs: internal and external enemies, some lethal and unexpected.
Was Jo Cox, MP, part of 'The Establishment' or did she just run out of luck?
"On 16 June 2016, Jo Cox, a British Labour Party politician and Member of Parliament (MP) for Batley and Spen, died after being shot and stabbed multiple times in Birstall, West Yorkshire. In November 2016, 53-year-old Thomas Alexander Mair was found guilty of her murder and other offences connected to the killing in an act of terrorism.[1] The judge concluded that Mair wanted to advance white supremacism and exclusive nationalism most associated with Nazism and its modern forms. He was sentenced to life imprisonment with a whole life order.[2][3]
The incident was the first killing of a sitting British MP since the death of Conservative MP Ian Gow, who was assassinated by the Provisional Irish Republican Army in 1990, and the first death of a politician in the United Kingdom during an attack since county councillor Andrew Pennington was killed in 2000."
Thanks for having a look at this! I wonder if it is a waste of time trying to glean anything useful from it given Norman Fenton and Martin Neil's post, in addition to El Gato Malo’s post, on how obviously lame the ONS data is. It seems to me that trying to undo unknown data processing is going to be problematic and could easily lead to imaginary results.
Although, if one could demonstrate the obvious problems with the data as Fenton and Neil did in their letter to the head of statistics, that makes sense because then "we" can write another letter.
Yep, I reckon it's a total waste of time trying to do anything fancy, so I'm sticking to revealing the garbage. The file did its job and that was to elicit the obvious legacy media headlines that the vaccines are safe as houses. I'm not so sure folk are convinced these days, except perhaps those who'd rather hear soothing messages that what is swilling around them is fine and dandy.
People are in fact doubting:
“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that (49%) of American Adults believe it is likely that side effects of COVID-19 vaccines have caused a significant number of unexplained deaths, including 28% who think it’s Very Likely. Thirty-seven percent (37%) don’t say a significant number of deaths have been caused by vaccine side effects, including 17% who believe it’s Not At All Likely. Another 14% are not sure.”
“Twenty-eight percent (28%) of adults say they personally know someone whose death they think may have been caused by side effects of COVID-19 vaccines, while 61% don’t and another 10% are not sure.”
“Forty-eight percent (48%) of Americans believe there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, while 37% think people who worry about vaccine safety are spreading conspiracy theories. Another 15% are not sure.”
“Seventy-one percent (71%) say they have received a COVID-19 vaccination, while 26% have not.”
“Forty-six percent (46%) of adults who have gotten vaccinated against COVID-19 believe people who worry about vaccine safety are spreading conspiracy theories, but just 15% of the unvaccinated share that belief.”
“Republicans (60%) than Democrats (44%) or the unaffiliated (43%) think there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. However, there is less political difference in the number who suspect someone they know might have died from vaccine side effects – 33% of Democrats and 26% of both Republicans and the unaffiliated.”
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/died_suddenly_more_than_1_in_4_think_someone_they_know_died_from_covid_19_vaccines
Cracking supporting material - many thanks!
FYI I just updated the article with NIMS estimates - my goodness!
I think it's important to note that what this really tells us is that the ONS dataset is biased, i.e. it is NOT a true representation of the population and that's all. It's not that they have underestimated the unvaccinated population, it's that their dataset, given the way it is filtered from the whole population, results in a subset that is not representative. In other words, it cannot be used to make inferences that apply to the general population. As such, it is not really useful for anything and doesn't really show anything one way or another! Unfortunately, this important fact did not make it down to the mainstream media hacks who used it to claim victory over us pesky anti-vaxxers! Meanwhile, people are still dying...
That's a cracking summary of the overall picture. If I talk about sampling bias people yawn, so I sell the idea in terms of missing deaths :-)
Clare Craig has just posted along those lines... https://drclarecraig.substack.com/p/deaths-among-the-ghost-population
Cheers Joel - my fingers ain't fast enough this morning - not even finished my cuppa from 5am!
One obvious check the data is whacked is that the would-be VE against all-cause mortality is too high to be explained by covid deaths. Like 50% VE in April 2021:
https://usmortality.substack.com/p/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-against
But covid not killing like that:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/april2021#leading-causes-of-death
Doesn’t Note 17 show the Nims dataset is also corrupted? Omitting >1,000 people who died shortly after vaccination. What an admission that is. How did it get past the censors?
It could well do - we've got sample bias within sample bias! I'm hoping others will hunt down inconsistencies with NIMS data capture, but it wouldn't surprise me since the task they face is immense.
This was one of my main hypotheses when we re-analysed the first release of this bulletin. There is an obvious upstream risk of the vaccination record not being updated if the death occurs so close to the injection. I covered it in one of my first ever Substacks in Dec 2021!! https://metatron.substack.com/p/cooking-the-books-ons-style-part. Almost 18 months later and the ONS is finally beginning to catch on...
I need a plate of biscuits and fresh pot of tea!
So the governments of virtually all advanced countries wasted a trillion pounds or more of our taxpayers money on a variety of totally untested and untestable experimental public health interventions designed to defeat an illness no worse than the flu, that caused immense physical, economic and psychological harm and even death?
They make Elizabeth Holmes of Thanos look like a rank amateur.
Sir Humphrey would be extremely proud of their determined efforts on our behalf!
Lordships, Ladyships, Knighthoods and Damehoods are being handed out like smarties as we speak!
Rob Kay to them it was money well spent in training their populations.
None of it sat right with me from the get go, I knew I wasn’t getting the juice when they announced the race to develop them, my suspicions were confirmed in December 20/20 edition of chemistry world. It ran two articles about them, one had two doctors discussing how social distancing and masking would still have to continue, another one, a dr Gregory Poland who posted videos on YouTube stated in the article the safety and efficacy is unknown and is to be monitored during and throughout rollout to millions of people.
Well we’ve seen how that worked out haven’t we!
I have family and friends who have been damaged and all we have is government and media silence about it. One friend has been left with neurological and immune problems another neurological and heart which has forced them to shut their own business. Two family members have immune problems now who were perfectly fine before. All have one thing in common, all had at least two Pfizer, some more believing they were doing the right thing.
Parliaments total disregard and disrespect for injuries large or small is not even human, as my mother would say, “some people have the morals of an alley cat”. Even alleycats wouldn’t stoop as low as our politicians have.
I think the politicians were both profoundly ignorant and also badly misled by their halt-wit and deeply compromised 'science' advisers - in particular, Vallance, Whitty, Devi Shridar, and Ferguson. Sadly very few civil servants or politicians have studied science past O level: this is a well-known weakness of the British establishment - nearly all of whom study Latin Greek, Politics and Economics etc, meaning that they usually defer to the 'boffins'.
I can vouch for that - in my old career I spent a fair few years as a scientific advisor to Ministers, Secretaries of State and senior civil servants. The stories I could tell!
They aren't very good accountants either. (Parkinson's law assumes that they can't count big numbers, hence they spend far more time discussing trivial issues like car parking and perks than on building a large new Nuclear power plant.)
I worked for one of the UK's largest Regional Health Authorities with a budget of a Billion pounds per annum: it employed only three qualified accountants!
Rob Lay sounds about right, three accountants and fifty managers to walk around with clipboards to note what isn’t getting done by the none existent staff.
I wouldn't be quite that harsh: my small team of six was responsible for closing down ten huge Victorian asylums and transferring hundreds of million of pounds to local housing associations and councils to ensure a safe transfer of care to local services that were designed with the person at the centre: I can assure you that we took this massive task very seriously indeed.
When I joined the NHS in the early 1980's, hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people were still living 30 to a ward, in appalling circumstances: I know, because I started off by wiping bottoms for two years before moving into strategic management: we were not perfect, but we did our best.
You can add Van Tam to that list, I watched him give misleading information to a auditorium full of teenagers in the bbc Xmas lecture the year before last.
The government has wilfully ignored, shut down and banished any honest debate with anyone who points out problems or flaws, had the not done so you could have forgiven them for being misled.
So many things that were off were staring directly back at us, firstly we had three amigos all step out of a back room mixing as normal to then stand on three platforms spaced out. This went on for over a year where they were projecting a disease so contagious, so deadly was on the prowl yet they mixed daily without fear for their own safety or lives, I use to and still joke about how brave and selfless they were 😂.
They also introduced vaccine passports to punish those who didn’t wish to take it, this also rewarded those who did, people were treated as no more than lab rats using training behaviour.
When Boris’s party shenanigans came to light it proved they knew they were baffling the public with bullshit. People should not forgive or forget the destruction they have caused and rained down on the people and their country, all the while them and their cronies have and are still stuffing their pockets full of suffering taxpayers money.
Yes, I almost forgot him. An odious little creep, he reminded me a bit of Odd-Job in the James Bond film Goldfinger. Actually they are like twins.
I called him "Van Tam, thank you Ma'am" ;-)
I haven't done science past o level either though, and can't seem to get me poor head round person years, but I know which side is talking frollocks and who is making sense
Person years is a measurement that takes into account both the number of people in the study and the amount of time each person spends in the study. For example, a study that follows 1,000 people for one year would contain 1,000 person years of data. A study that follows 100 people for 10 years would also contain 1,000 person years of data.
If the study period is short, say just one month, then our sample of 1,000 people would contain 1,000 person months, which is equal to 83.3 person years (py).
When it comes to vaccination a person will go from unvaccinated to vaccinated at some point within the year. If they got vaccinated at the beginning of July then they'd have spent 6 months in the unvaccinated group and 6 months in the vaccinated group. If our sample of 1,000 people all did the same then we'd have 500 person months (41.7 py) in the unvaccinated group and 500 person months (41.7py) in the vaccinated group for a study period of just one year.
If the study period was two years, with the first year being vaccine free then the unvaccinated person year count would bump up to 83.3 + 41.7 = 125py for the unvaccinated group and remain at 41.7py for the vaccinated group, making a study total of 166.7py
If we knew the exact date of vaccination then we'd be able to calculate the number of unvaccinated days from the study period start and thus the number of vaccinated days to the study period end, then convert these into year fractions.
In this way we would arrive at a more accurate measure for the denominator in a rate calculation such as deaths per 100,000 person years - I hope this helps clear the mud!
Thanks for taking the time to explain, on top of everything else you do, it helps though still doing a bit of bog snorkeling. It feels to myun- mathsy brain that they've spent the last 7 months deVising the best formula for showing what they want shown, while simultaneously being hard to winkle through unless it's your field of expertise. 🤔
I share your views on the establishment. Having met a few of these bozos I now regard them with the utmost contempt.
However, there is one aspect of their stereotype that removes any excuse. My own background & tertiary education is in electronic & electrical engineering (maths, physics type stuff) and business (more maths, loads of stats etc.), but later in life I became interested in classical history. If TPTB were really classicists, they should be familiar with the many examples of exploitation, deceit, hubris and so on in the classical corpus. If nothing else, their education should have told them that their courtiers & other such hangers on were not to be trusted.
The only conclusion I can draw is that they knew exactly what they were doing and cannot therefore claim ignorance as an excuse. That awareness of human dynamics & history glimpsed through the eyes of the ancient Greeks & Romans should have raised at least as many red flags as a more scientific approach.
I've been close enough to 'The Establishment' to smell the whiff of their cigar smoke.. and I've gained a few insights into them. Many of them are deeply insecure: they found themselves in positions of 'power' (whatever that means) by birth, luck, hard graft or dirty deeds, and they all fear losing their position. Many of them have to watch their backs constantly: because they attract all kinds of nutjobs: internal and external enemies, some lethal and unexpected.
Was Jo Cox, MP, part of 'The Establishment' or did she just run out of luck?
"On 16 June 2016, Jo Cox, a British Labour Party politician and Member of Parliament (MP) for Batley and Spen, died after being shot and stabbed multiple times in Birstall, West Yorkshire. In November 2016, 53-year-old Thomas Alexander Mair was found guilty of her murder and other offences connected to the killing in an act of terrorism.[1] The judge concluded that Mair wanted to advance white supremacism and exclusive nationalism most associated with Nazism and its modern forms. He was sentenced to life imprisonment with a whole life order.[2][3]
The incident was the first killing of a sitting British MP since the death of Conservative MP Ian Gow, who was assassinated by the Provisional Irish Republican Army in 1990, and the first death of a politician in the United Kingdom during an attack since county councillor Andrew Pennington was killed in 2000."