Primary Clinical Outcomes For A Single Emergency Department 2017 - 2021 (part 2)

SMLR modelling of 1.9 million admissions records for the emergency departments of an undisclosed NHS Trust for the period Jan 2017 – Sep 2021: predicting decision to treat.

So here I am at the beginning of an attempt to build another staged multivariate logistic regression (SMLR) model in order to understand the world. Sometimes this stats stuff is all rather surreal. In part 1 of this series I fleshed out two primary clinical outcomes for the emergency department (ED) these being decision to treat (treated; not treated) and disposal method (discharged; hospitalised). I’ve a shortlist of 13 independent and 2 dependent variables to consider (mostly in binary form) so let us start out by eyeballing the summary stats for the 1,530,522 adults that were aged 18 years and over on admission to the ED over the period 2017/w1 - 2021/w37:

As before the mean of any binary indicator variable coded as [0,1] provides a sample estimate of the proportion of cases. Thus we see that adult females slightly outgunned males over this period with a proportion of 0.52 (52%). We also see that the dominant condition was physical injury (including intoxication and poisoning) at 0.…