Primary Clinical Outcomes For A Single Emergency Department 2017 - 2021 (part 3)

SMLR modelling of 1.9 million admissions records for the emergency departments of an undisclosed NHS Trust for the period Jan 2017 – Sep 2021: predicting hospitalisation

I have to admit that part 2 of this series was a humdinger of a brain mangler. I normally would have provided a pithy bullet point summary at the outset (as I do for all logistic regression work) but I ran foul of the length limit for email distribution and had to cut the pastry short. Short crust, if you will. And there goes the first groan of the day!

What I shall do, therefore, is try something skimpy in this paragraph and say that part 2 was all about predicting which admissions to the ED got treated there and which did not. Age came into it as did sex as did mode of arrival as did total diagnoses made as did nine indicator variables identifying cardiac, cancer, respiratory, infective, CNS, endocrine, blood disorders/CVA, GI diseases and physical injury; as did many interactions between these factors.

Prediction using logistic regression in this manner yields a probability score for each individual which we can then aggregate to see if scores were raised during the COVID era compar…