Reliability Of Vaccination Status in the EPR (part 1)

I utilise data from an unknown NHS Trust to determine the reliability of vaccination status as encoded in the electronic patient record (EPR)

In The PCR Test As A Predictor Of Acute Respiratory Conditions (part 3) I took the liberty of building a predictive model for incidence of a positive test result as embodied in the indicator variable COVID-19 Dx. The idea behind all this fiddling is that we cannot trust the incidence of a positive test result in the EPR of deceased in-patients as being a truthful indicator of genuine disease status at death, and so we instead rely on a statistical model to point to likely genuine cases.

In building a predictive model with the aid of machine learning, which seems to be the fashion these days, I came across an interesting result for the vaccination status indicator that I shall paste again here:

The Illusion Uncovered

Being curious I did wonder where vaccination sat in all of this and found a single main effect cowering near the bottom (OR = 0.18, p<0.001). If we are to follow the shallow reasoning of the pro-vax cult then this indicates a near six-fold magical reduction in the likelihood …