Testing… Testing… (part 1)

The relationship between viral tests and COVID ‘cases’

In my newsletters I often refer to the sensible folk who realise that (all things being equal) more testing means more cases, which is why I tend to use rates such as COVID cases per 100 viral tests. Things are not always equal, however, and crazy stuff happens like people changing their attitude to self-testing. A mutating virus we can deal with, changing definitions of what constitutes a COVID case we can deal with but even the best analysts can’t deal with everything.

Back on 1st April 2020 a total of 16,301 PCR tests were undertaken across the nation of England, with 4,150 COVID cases being declared (25.5% detection rate). Six months later, on 1st Oct 2020, a total of 210,923 PCR tests were undertaken, with 11,445 COVID cases being declared (5.4% detection rate). Between these two dates COVID cases rose by 7,295 – a staggering 276% increase - and scary top-line figures such as these were broadcast to a gullible public who were led to believe things were getting worse.

In fact, thing…