Trends In Causality for England, 2014/w23 – 2022/w46 (part 4)
Statistical analysis of a dataset obtained under FOI by Joel Smalley revealing weekly deaths by date of death, age, sex and primary cause of death
Before I get stuck into primary cause in more detail we’d better have a look at the overall mortality picture in terms of all cause death for all age bands and for the 10 decadal age bands separately for England for the period 2014/w23 – 2022/w46.
Calculs Avec La Population
Before we eyeball yet more slides I better point out that my mortality calculations are derived using population estimates for each age band using ONS per year of age data, thus the mortality for the 18 – 29y band is the number of deaths for that age group divided by the population estimate for that precise age group (for the nation of England). Anybody wanting to have a fiddle for themselves can find the rather large (77Mb) but tremendously useful Excel spreadsheet called analysistool2020uk.xlsx here. This table provides annual trends based on mid year estimates only, so I’ve used a modicum of time series modelling to convert these into weekly trends.
Office for National Shame
With that all said and done, let’s grab a drink and a snack and have a look at a whole bunch of mortality time series based on actual date of death and not date of death registration. Quite why this key information has to be obtained under FOIA (with data processing charges to boot) is beyond me, for it’s pretty basic to any understanding of health and welfare and the ONS is supposed to be a public facing organisation. In my book a public facing organisation should be telling us the truth, openly and transparently each and every single day to the best of their ability, especially in matters of life and death.
Attention S'il Vous Plait!
In the following 11 slides I’d like folk to pay attention to general trends upward and downward, seasonality, periodicity and outlying years (i.e. blips and bumps). Death is a complex endpoint so we’re looking at the impact of technology and policy as well as attitudes, lifestyle and pathogens. We’re also looking at the impact of coding and processing, and in this regard please clock the substantial deficit in 18 – 29y deaths for 2022; this is almost certainly due to delays arising from involvement of the coroner. Thus, please do bear in mind we haven’t yet seen what the actual death toll for 2022 for the younger generations has been. Especially bear this caveat in mind when the ONS start tweeting the percentage of excess deaths for anything beyond January 2022 – these are bound to be underestimates until the final picture emerges some months down the line.
Folk who’ve paid attention to part 1 and part 2 of this series will recall the bizarre synchronisation for 2020/w15 (w/e 10 Apr) that points the finger at iatrogenic death owing to the multi-causal nature of the situation at a time when the vulnerable were kicked out of hospital beds and put on EOL protocols in care homes. Thus, when you study those whopping great peaks for spring 2020 and winter 2020/21, please do remember that the national death tally isn’t just about COVID - ideally we’d have three new ICD-10 codes: U99.0 Death arising from unsound Ministerial policy; U99.1 Sequelae of expert advice, funding unspecified; U99.2 Sequelae of expert advice, funding specified.
Plat Du Jour
Allumez la bouilloire!
I suspect I have been eating too much French bread and butter.
Il faut 40 à 50 heures par semaine pour tourner la poignée et ce niveau d'engagement n'est rendu possible que grâce aux revenus d'abonnement. Je suis très reconnaissant de votre soutien.
It's interesting that the two prominent spikes, spring 2020 and Dec-Jan, are so age specific. There are no spikes for those younger than 30.
I assume that spring 2020 is the first wave of Delta sweeping through the population, and it would be interesting to know whether this peak is consistent with the generally understood ifr by age group. At this point there were no vaccines. I guess the same reasoning might apply to the second peak, but I'm not sure when a material percentage of the population in the UK was vaccinated .
How far into 2022 does good data extend? Three months? Six months? It's a pity we don't have the 2022 data available yet, it will be interesting to see what happened last year.
IMHO, on your future charts, you should end the chart in the last month for which you know you have good data. I understand why you put all of the data you have on these, and that was useful. Now that we have seen this, I think the charts should stop where the good data stops.
Thanks for the pretty pictures!
Midazolam and Morphine?
Is it possible to track use of these drugs during the same time frame?