It's interesting that the two prominent spikes, spring 2020 and Dec-Jan, are so age specific. There are no spikes for those younger than 30.
I assume that spring 2020 is the first wave of Delta sweeping through the population, and it would be interesting to know whether this peak is consistent with the generally understood ifr by age group. At this point there were no vaccines. I guess the same reasoning might apply to the second peak, but I'm not sure when a material percentage of the population in the UK was vaccinated .
How far into 2022 does good data extend? Three months? Six months? It's a pity we don't have the 2022 data available yet, it will be interesting to see what happened last year.
IMHO, on your future charts, you should end the chart in the last month for which you know you have good data. I understand why you put all of the data you have on these, and that was useful. Now that we have seen this, I think the charts should stop where the good data stops.
Yes, age specific and very well defined temporally - too well defined, in fact. The first spike coincides with evacuation of hospital beds, closure of services and instigation of EOL protocols in care homes (non-COVID care home deaths show the same specific spike) as well as rollout of several antiviral drug trials and inappropriate use of ventilation.
COVID actually hit these shores Sep - Oct 2019, causing a substantial pre-Christmas rise in A&E respiratory intake for one our largest NHS Trusts from which I received a substantial EPR data dump. Come spring 2020 things had settled down, both in terms of respiratory intake and respiratory death (I have an EPR dump for in-hospital deaths also), so what we are looking at is likely to be primarily iatrogenic in nature. A number of bods I am in contact with are coming to the same alarming conclusion.
The 'good' data doesn't extend into 2022 whatsoever for certain age groups and causes, at least according to the analyses I've been doing behind the scenes (I publish less than 1% of my work). When it comes to modelling work charts will be truncated or marked, but to begin with it is important for folk to see the tail-off for themselves.
John Dee it was definitely here in the latter part of 2019. My brother had it in October of that year and was really ill with it, he saw his gp who told him he needed to go straight to the hospital.
The next time he saw his gp he commented on how much better he looked after his stay in hospital, my brother’s response was “ don’t talk daft, I’m not mad and didn’t want killing by them, I went home to bed and rode it out there”.
Ironically he never got it again until he’d had his third shot, same as my mum who had it January 2020. My mum was out and about as normal after two weeks of lockdown, she said if she was going to die then it would be doing something she enjoyed, not from being cooped up in her house like a prisoner.
I got hit the first week in Dec 2020 and also nursed myself at home. Many people in these parts reported a horrid flu-like illness at least 3 months prior to the announcement of the pandemic.
I have two teenagers, they went all way through without catching zilch until between February and April last year. Like me neither is vaxxed, our immune systems dealt with it as it should.
As a parent who has worked through the madness, I’ve witnessed that the young were not at risk, any changes that happened were due to unneeded medical intervention.
"Unneeded medical intervention" is exactly it! I have yet to establish which authority set care protocols and patient management but senior managers and lead clinicians are reluctant to spill the beans. I suspect most of this was driven by WHO guidelines and recommendations funnelled through NICE...
Question for you: Alex Berenson said on his substack yesterday that the ONS data showed: "The Office of National Statistics said it had registered 17,381 deaths in England and Wales in the week ended Friday, January 13. That figure is about 20 percent more than the five-year average - and 30 percent more than longer-term averages - for the year’s second week." Given that you are having trouble figuring out excess deaths, I assume that Alex Berenson should be having the same problem. Yes?
Also, as Norman Fenton reported last week, the ONS data is not fit for purpose, so do you think Alex is correct in making his assertion? That is to say, is the underlying data insufficient to support his assertion?
Well, we can all quote that figure if we fancy but it's not going to be correct for two reasons:
1. Not all deaths have been processed as yet, so this excess will be an underestimate.
2. The ONS 5-year prior mean baseline uses counts from 2020 and 2021, which will serve to inflate the baseline and thus reduce the excess.
That's a double whammy and Alex should ideally be aware of this. If we ever get to see the true figures these may be scary to the point of needing new underpants.
Another question for you. Fabian Spieker has a series of posts about excess deaths in Germany. He asserts that about 100,000 Germans have been killed by the vaccines in his latest substack. https://substack.com/inbox/post/98342289. Have you had a look at the analysis he has done?
It's interesting that the two prominent spikes, spring 2020 and Dec-Jan, are so age specific. There are no spikes for those younger than 30.
I assume that spring 2020 is the first wave of Delta sweeping through the population, and it would be interesting to know whether this peak is consistent with the generally understood ifr by age group. At this point there were no vaccines. I guess the same reasoning might apply to the second peak, but I'm not sure when a material percentage of the population in the UK was vaccinated .
How far into 2022 does good data extend? Three months? Six months? It's a pity we don't have the 2022 data available yet, it will be interesting to see what happened last year.
IMHO, on your future charts, you should end the chart in the last month for which you know you have good data. I understand why you put all of the data you have on these, and that was useful. Now that we have seen this, I think the charts should stop where the good data stops.
Thanks for the pretty pictures!
Yes, age specific and very well defined temporally - too well defined, in fact. The first spike coincides with evacuation of hospital beds, closure of services and instigation of EOL protocols in care homes (non-COVID care home deaths show the same specific spike) as well as rollout of several antiviral drug trials and inappropriate use of ventilation.
COVID actually hit these shores Sep - Oct 2019, causing a substantial pre-Christmas rise in A&E respiratory intake for one our largest NHS Trusts from which I received a substantial EPR data dump. Come spring 2020 things had settled down, both in terms of respiratory intake and respiratory death (I have an EPR dump for in-hospital deaths also), so what we are looking at is likely to be primarily iatrogenic in nature. A number of bods I am in contact with are coming to the same alarming conclusion.
The 'good' data doesn't extend into 2022 whatsoever for certain age groups and causes, at least according to the analyses I've been doing behind the scenes (I publish less than 1% of my work). When it comes to modelling work charts will be truncated or marked, but to begin with it is important for folk to see the tail-off for themselves.
John Dee it was definitely here in the latter part of 2019. My brother had it in October of that year and was really ill with it, he saw his gp who told him he needed to go straight to the hospital.
The next time he saw his gp he commented on how much better he looked after his stay in hospital, my brother’s response was “ don’t talk daft, I’m not mad and didn’t want killing by them, I went home to bed and rode it out there”.
Ironically he never got it again until he’d had his third shot, same as my mum who had it January 2020. My mum was out and about as normal after two weeks of lockdown, she said if she was going to die then it would be doing something she enjoyed, not from being cooped up in her house like a prisoner.
I got hit the first week in Dec 2020 and also nursed myself at home. Many people in these parts reported a horrid flu-like illness at least 3 months prior to the announcement of the pandemic.
I have two teenagers, they went all way through without catching zilch until between February and April last year. Like me neither is vaxxed, our immune systems dealt with it as it should.
As a parent who has worked through the madness, I’ve witnessed that the young were not at risk, any changes that happened were due to unneeded medical intervention.
"Unneeded medical intervention" is exactly it! I have yet to establish which authority set care protocols and patient management but senior managers and lead clinicians are reluctant to spill the beans. I suspect most of this was driven by WHO guidelines and recommendations funnelled through NICE...
https://www.nice.org.uk/search?q=COVID-19&nai=COVID-19&s=date
Midazolam and Morphine?
Is it possible to track use of these drugs during the same time frame?
That has been done in great detail by a team pursuing legal action.
You may want to read the comments in part 2 of this series 😉
Question for you: Alex Berenson said on his substack yesterday that the ONS data showed: "The Office of National Statistics said it had registered 17,381 deaths in England and Wales in the week ended Friday, January 13. That figure is about 20 percent more than the five-year average - and 30 percent more than longer-term averages - for the year’s second week." Given that you are having trouble figuring out excess deaths, I assume that Alex Berenson should be having the same problem. Yes?
Also, as Norman Fenton reported last week, the ONS data is not fit for purpose, so do you think Alex is correct in making his assertion? That is to say, is the underlying data insufficient to support his assertion?
Edit: here's the link: https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/urgent-deaths-in-england-surge-again
Well, we can all quote that figure if we fancy but it's not going to be correct for two reasons:
1. Not all deaths have been processed as yet, so this excess will be an underestimate.
2. The ONS 5-year prior mean baseline uses counts from 2020 and 2021, which will serve to inflate the baseline and thus reduce the excess.
That's a double whammy and Alex should ideally be aware of this. If we ever get to see the true figures these may be scary to the point of needing new underpants.
Another question for you. Fabian Spieker has a series of posts about excess deaths in Germany. He asserts that about 100,000 Germans have been killed by the vaccines in his latest substack. https://substack.com/inbox/post/98342289. Have you had a look at the analysis he has done?
I'm afraid I don't have time.