Using ARIMA To Investigate Reinfection
Assessing the influence of mass viral testing programmes on case positivity: are we experiencing a testdemic?
In Case Count Heads Up I drew attention to the fact that daily COVID case counts now include first episodes as well as reinfections so the political situation is never going to ease since they can spin this out year in, year out. On top of that, in Baking Even Better with ARIMA (part 3), I presented the results of statistical modelling that provided strong evidence for both a testdemic and a vaxdemic to the tune of 66.1%; that is to say, an estimated 66.1% of new first episodes are being generated by the test regime itself, with an estimated 2.7% of cases arising directly from vaccination.
The situation can be likened to an Ouroboros in which the viral test and the viral panacea generate the situation that demands a viral test and viral panacea. With each serpent cycle human rights are diminished on a global scale and those with vested interests in maintaining the illusion get richer, which is why I coined the phrase Ourobuggered back in 2021.
This morning I am going to repeat my ARIMA modelling process but flip to predicting daily counts for reinfections instead of new episodes. Let us then take a look at what we’re trying to model…
Daily New Reinfections
According to the UK GOV coronavirus dashboard these came into existence on 19 Jun 2020 so I have plotted the time series from the first of that month to keep things nice and tidy: