Baking Even Better With ARIMA (part 3)
Assessing the influence of mass viral testing programmes on case positivity: are we experiencing a testdemic? (rev 1.1)
In part 1 of this series I conjured an ARIMA model for the prediction of new first episodes by specimen date and out popped unique people tested and LFD tests as highly statistically significant predictors of new first episodes (p<0.001 in each case). Whilst statistical significance gets the ball rolling it doesn’t tell us much about effect size; that i…