Vaccines & Death (part 2)
Red pill confirmation of the alarming findings of Steve Kirsch?
In part 1 of this series I seemingly confirmed the somewhat disturbing results of recent research undertaken by Steve Kirsch over in the US using data supplied by the UK GOV coronavirus dashboard and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). ARIMA time series modelling formally confirmed what our eyeballs were telling us, this being the inescapable fact that weekly excess all cause death in England & Wales was following the pattern of weekly vaccination dosing (any and all doses) with a delay of around 5 months. I say seemingly because I ended-up with a model that indicated vaccine benefit and not harm.
All cause death necessarily includes COVID cases and so we need to rule out the possibility that variations in mutation patterns are not generating what we’re seeing. Are we jumping the gun somewhat?
In the immortal words of David Walliams on the fabulous Little Britain, “computer says no”. Grab a cuppa and a biccie and have a butcher’s at this little lot…
Excess Non-COVID Death
I moaned on about the somewhat dubious calculation of all cause excess death in part 1 of this series, whereby the baseline of prior 5-year mean deaths by week is subtracted from observed deaths. I also explained that I wished to stick to this method for the time being because it’s what bods at the ONS do to derive an estimate.
Given we have weekly estimates of excess all cause death the simplest method I can think of to derive an estimate of excess non-COVID death is to subtract the weekly counts of COVID deaths that you’ll find in this ONS spreadsheet. Simples, to quote a certain meerkat puppet that annoys me intensely.
Total Doses
If you missed definitions first time round I’ll just remind you that I’ve added daily counts of dose 1, dose 2 and dose 3 for the nations England and Wales to give a grand daily total. These have been summed to weekly totals and there you have it! One point to note is that these counts are by date of publication and not by date of vaccination since these rather useful figures are available for England only. I’m also missing dose 4 and dose 5 data.
Outing Your Orlov
We shall start with both data series as they stand in Einsteinian space-time:
With suspicions aroused we shall now slide the dose data by 21 weeks and trim the start. These are excess non-COVID deaths folks so we can’t go blaming the delta or any other variant:
If you disliked them apples you’ll like these - here’s the dose data slid along by 18 weeks:
A whopping point to note here is that the UK GOV coronavirus dashboard team are not releasing counts of dose 4 and dose 5 data as yet. Please bear this in mind when eyeballing what appears to be several recent weeks of respite with deaths cranked up to 11 and doses down in the dungeon. It ain’t necessarily so, sang the character Sportin’ Life in the fantabulous Porgy and Bess. Wiki reminds us that Sportin' Life is a drug dealer who expresses his doubt about several statements in the Bible. Quite.
The Big Spanner
What we need to do now is fetch that big spanner out of the bag again, this being the utterly fabulous ARIMA time series thingy, and run one of those intervention wotsits, this being a formal statistical analysis that determines if combined the lagged series for weekly vaccine doses has got anything to do with weekly excess non-COVID death.
Computer says “yes!”
An ARIMA(1,1,0) model furnished a p-value of p<0.001 for the independent variable labelled Total Doses (million) - LAG21, and here is the very result as it appears on my workstation once more:
Experienced analysts will once again note the delay parameter of 2 weeks for the independent variable of interest, thus a lag of 21 weeks is a good starting point but ARIMA wants to shift it a couple of weeks for an extra cosy fit.
That there mind-mangling coefficient of determination fetches-up at r-square = 0.305. In plain English this means 30.54% of the variation we see in weekly excess non-COVID death over this period can be explained by variation in weekly combined dosing alone. This is nothing short of astonishing, and if a figure of 0.305 doesn’t float your boat think of it as nearly 1 in 3 excess deaths being explained by variation in dosing alone.
I thought that would grab your attention, and this all sounds smashing, but there is still that monster sting in the tail, this being the negative coefficient of -442.126 for delayed vaccine doses: this is another model for delayed vaccine benefit! Naturally I shall be looking deeper into this curiosity as we go along.
The Pudding
Always a pudding please! Here is that ARIMA(1,1,0) model tracking the variation in weekly excess non-COVID death using 21 week lagged combined dosing data. Viral variants need not apply!
Up Next
Like Joel Smalley I’m not completely happy with the ONS method of calculating excess death so I shall spend some time fiddling in the kitchen to see what can be done to polish things up. I rather fancy his polynomial approach but I might try and squeeze something using ARIMA. I shall need a few days’ cogitation and pan-handling for this, so it might go All Quiet on the Western Front whilst I munch my way through flapjack.
Kettle On!
My hubby gets Chemistry world magazine monthly due to being a member of the royal society of chemistry. In December 2020 they run two articles about the vaccines, in one of the articles a Dr Poland says how that people will still need to social distance and mask wear as the efficacy and durability of the vaccines are to be determined, this is along with safety where data is to be collected and recorded as no long term data is available as they are rolled out to millions. I saved this magazine because what I read with what the public have been told didn’t add up or sit right with me.
It’s actually despicable that the data they do have now shows up the problems they’re causing, yet they bury it from the public. Millions who didn’t need it including pregnant women and children have been given this with no real research to what it can do to them.
Nothing about this ever sat right with me from the start, my neighbour confirmed it within two weeks of the first lockdown, this article made me understand why I felt so uneasy at the suggestion of taking it and people have even been openly hostile believing anti vaxxer like me should have been dumped on an island or put in camps.
I have never been anti vaccine in my life, I was even with this vax pro informed consent choice. That included informing people that it was an experimental gene therapy treatment with the trials which they would be part of running until 2023. Giving people a piece of paper to read with limited acknowledge side effects while Pfizer hid their trial data is abhorrent to me and is lacking at best from the medical community. Questions should have been asked, those that did were sent into the wilderness and the messaging was used in full force to do the right thing.
What I despise about all this is all the lies and misinformation directed at the public, they know they’re causing harm and reduce peoples immune system, they are withholding this and will be calling for the public to go get their boosters soon, I’m hoping most of the public sticks two fingers up and tell them to jog on.
People have the right to take them if they do so wish, what they should be told is the risk, benefit when doing so. I have vaccine damage friends and family from these jabs, not one was told about the yellow card system or how to report onto it, how many million are missing from the site due to not knowing anything about it. Scandalous doesn’t even touch it.
I think that after a lot of very frustrating and time consuming blind alleys, we are now hitting the real paydirt. It's been bloody frustrating and complex to follow at times, and being a sensible sort of pragmatist I have to swat away the buzzing flies of conspiracy theorists who want to put this all down to some kind of 'Dr Evil' mastermind attempt to destroy the human race, but there is zero doubt in my mind that the vaccines are killing people, and that they are doing so in numbers that make Dr Harold Shipman look like a rank amateur.
Now, someone asked why the Chinese haven't invested in MRNA vaccines, and I think we know the reason why: they still seriously believe in Zero Covid: it suits their world-model. I have no idea how they get away with it, their lockdown philosophy is ridiculous: a pantomime.