Exploring Excess Death (part 5)

I investigate alternative methods for estimating excess death using ONS weekly registration data from 2010 - 2023

Method #3: Subtracting The Seasonal Mean

So here we are at the third method and what I shall be doing today is subtracting the de-trended seasonal mean series as described in part 4 from observed weekly counts for all cause death for England & Wales. This is a stationary series in time analysis lingo meaning it doesn’t trend upward or downward in the longer term and merely oscillates around a central mean value of 9,272 deaths per week. What matters here above all things is the seasonal pattern. Herewith the difference series revealing the weekly excess:

Herewith the cumulative excess: