Looking at your top graph here, my eyeballs would split this into three parts - up to 2014/15 there is a constant average around 500. From 2015 to 2020 it shifts up to double that - nearer 1000. Then post 2020 it shifts up to double that again and with increasing variance/variability. We know what happened in 2020 ... did any significant health events occur in 2014/15? or am I imagining it?
My eyeballs suggest the same. The answer partly lies in the fifth slide of part 4 - that hump you see from 2015 onward is caused by the historic low of 2010 - 2014. Think of excess death as relative rather than absolute.
I remember feeling rather satisfied with the massive improvements in the Noughties - we assumed that our Public Health Strategy was working. Actually it had a lot more to do with rationing in the key years between 1940 and 1950, and continued austerity into the 1960's. This meant that children growing up had almost zero access to unhealthy processed foods, and were lean and fit - all those days on the football fields and in the gym did no harm either. Kids walked to school, or cycled. They ate local grown food.
And they valued thrift. Plastic bags were washed and re-used.
We thought life expectancy ,might increase exponentially. I think we were delusional.
Lets all sing together: (In four part harmony, to the tune of a 12 string Hawaiian Guitar - we can call ourselves John Dee and the Amazing Kup Kakes for all I care) ....
"No Pandemic - there never was a Pandemic"!
The biggest single clue in all this was the median age of those who died of/with Covid, which was always higher than the usual life expectancy. 82. So, mostly born in the 1930's and 1940's.
So, the 1940's Pre-Boomers did very well really, up to a point, being generally rather a sensible and compliant generation, mostly blue-collar workers born into WW2 Austerity, and being a rather mild winter of 2019, many of them managed a few extra months of life, but sooner or later, those Pre-Boomers had to Bust - and Bust they did.
Looking at your top graph here, my eyeballs would split this into three parts - up to 2014/15 there is a constant average around 500. From 2015 to 2020 it shifts up to double that - nearer 1000. Then post 2020 it shifts up to double that again and with increasing variance/variability. We know what happened in 2020 ... did any significant health events occur in 2014/15? or am I imagining it?
My eyeballs suggest the same. The answer partly lies in the fifth slide of part 4 - that hump you see from 2015 onward is caused by the historic low of 2010 - 2014. Think of excess death as relative rather than absolute.
I remember feeling rather satisfied with the massive improvements in the Noughties - we assumed that our Public Health Strategy was working. Actually it had a lot more to do with rationing in the key years between 1940 and 1950, and continued austerity into the 1960's. This meant that children growing up had almost zero access to unhealthy processed foods, and were lean and fit - all those days on the football fields and in the gym did no harm either. Kids walked to school, or cycled. They ate local grown food.
And they valued thrift. Plastic bags were washed and re-used.
We thought life expectancy ,might increase exponentially. I think we were delusional.
Lets all sing together: (In four part harmony, to the tune of a 12 string Hawaiian Guitar - we can call ourselves John Dee and the Amazing Kup Kakes for all I care) ....
"No Pandemic - there never was a Pandemic"!
The biggest single clue in all this was the median age of those who died of/with Covid, which was always higher than the usual life expectancy. 82. So, mostly born in the 1930's and 1940's.
So, the 1940's Pre-Boomers did very well really, up to a point, being generally rather a sensible and compliant generation, mostly blue-collar workers born into WW2 Austerity, and being a rather mild winter of 2019, many of them managed a few extra months of life, but sooner or later, those Pre-Boomers had to Bust - and Bust they did.