Catastrophic Health Collapse (part 4)

In this article I run standardised excess all cause death for England for 1986 – 2022 through ARIMA time series analysis

In part 1 of this series I revealed what the time series for excess all cause death for England over the period 2010/w1 – 2022/w46 looks like if we surgically remove the catastrophic health collapse (CHEC) death spike that took place 2020/w13 – 2020/w22. In terms of excessive excess we’re looking at up to 55,755 deaths that could be attributed to misguided policies over this period rather than anything genuinely viral.

I refined this estimate In part 2 by standardising the data to account for England’s growing population, ending with an estimate of 53,518 deaths that likely arose from the response to COVID rather than COVID itself.

In part 3 I took a look at crude mortality over the period 1986/w1 – 2022/w46 and used a time series technique (ARIMA) that provided evidence of a policy change rather than the passage of a pathogen. We discovered that 2020 - prior to vaccination rollout - was not an exceptional year once we surgically removed the CHEC death spike.

We may conclude at this s…