Curious how you are going to control for covid. "Post vax rollout" might be a proxy for "post culling of the oldest and weakest in 2020". In other words, 2020 may be the especially disproportionate year, as opposed to 2021.
If I understand your scatterplots correctly, they are basically detecting historically disproportionate weeks. Intuitively, I would imagine the scatterplots would be more interesting if plotted as a time series where the y-axis is the ratio of old to young deaths. Maybe even do some kind of "cumulative percent excess" of that ratio. This would likely tell us more about the source of the disproportionately.
I'll probably take the easy option and look at non-COVID deaths! Yep, surviviorship bias is rife and yes, these plots basically flag up disproportionate weeks. Those ratios are already calculated and will feature in forthcoming articles, meanwhile I'm trialling some ARIMA intervention runs and these are yielding pleasing results that confirm the simplistic GLM approach - all will be written up at some point!
It’s become transparent why more than one lockdown was needed and indeed happened.
The lockdowns are the scapegoat to answer every problem question that is put towards them. It’s not their decisions, bad policy, dodgy pharmaceuticals that are at fault or guilty of causing harm, it’s the lockdowns fault end of in their world and that’s what they’re sticking with.
As someone who on paper is classed as high risk from this, due to previously having pneumonia, age bracket and unvaxxed I should have been dead and buried along time ago according to them, this especially as I worked through apart from a weeks due to supply issues my boss had at the start. When we opened back up we were constantly busy and I’ve served thousands of people, handled more money than I can count, yet I’m still alive and kicking just like millions of others. What we as a country did witness was a dereliction of duty from our healthcare system that should always focus on early treatment instead of ignoring those in need that were ill and could be saved.
Given that you’ve retired, John, presumably your successor within the NHS is capable of doing this sort of analysis - do you have any connections there? can you tell if this being done?
I'm afraid not. My work comprised three different roles: 1. Clinical Data Manager in charge of departmental databases; 2. Senior Clinical Audit Facilitator in charge of the national and local clinical audit programme; 3. Statistical consultant. Graded at band 8a I set about dissolving the unwieldy post in my last few months. We replaced me with a band 6 audit facilitator, a band 6 Data Manager and transferred consultancy work to R&D. I retired in 2009 as the one and only example of my breed and haven't spoken to any of my old colleagues since then.
Curious how you are going to control for covid. "Post vax rollout" might be a proxy for "post culling of the oldest and weakest in 2020". In other words, 2020 may be the especially disproportionate year, as opposed to 2021.
If I understand your scatterplots correctly, they are basically detecting historically disproportionate weeks. Intuitively, I would imagine the scatterplots would be more interesting if plotted as a time series where the y-axis is the ratio of old to young deaths. Maybe even do some kind of "cumulative percent excess" of that ratio. This would likely tell us more about the source of the disproportionately.
I'll probably take the easy option and look at non-COVID deaths! Yep, surviviorship bias is rife and yes, these plots basically flag up disproportionate weeks. Those ratios are already calculated and will feature in forthcoming articles, meanwhile I'm trialling some ARIMA intervention runs and these are yielding pleasing results that confirm the simplistic GLM approach - all will be written up at some point!
It’s become transparent why more than one lockdown was needed and indeed happened.
The lockdowns are the scapegoat to answer every problem question that is put towards them. It’s not their decisions, bad policy, dodgy pharmaceuticals that are at fault or guilty of causing harm, it’s the lockdowns fault end of in their world and that’s what they’re sticking with.
As someone who on paper is classed as high risk from this, due to previously having pneumonia, age bracket and unvaxxed I should have been dead and buried along time ago according to them, this especially as I worked through apart from a weeks due to supply issues my boss had at the start. When we opened back up we were constantly busy and I’ve served thousands of people, handled more money than I can count, yet I’m still alive and kicking just like millions of others. What we as a country did witness was a dereliction of duty from our healthcare system that should always focus on early treatment instead of ignoring those in need that were ill and could be saved.
Given that you’ve retired, John, presumably your successor within the NHS is capable of doing this sort of analysis - do you have any connections there? can you tell if this being done?
I'm afraid not. My work comprised three different roles: 1. Clinical Data Manager in charge of departmental databases; 2. Senior Clinical Audit Facilitator in charge of the national and local clinical audit programme; 3. Statistical consultant. Graded at band 8a I set about dissolving the unwieldy post in my last few months. We replaced me with a band 6 audit facilitator, a band 6 Data Manager and transferred consultancy work to R&D. I retired in 2009 as the one and only example of my breed and haven't spoken to any of my old colleagues since then.
I'd be interested to see what the average death rate is for young people from 2015-19 as well
I am in the middle of data prep for date of death registration for age groups going back to 2014, so the answer should pop out shortly.