With the NHS straining under impressive levels of seasonal respiratory infection I decided to take a closer look at historical levels of death due to influenza and pneumonia
I do hope you feel better soon. That's very interesting. I would include emotional along with physiological conditions as the two are so closely linked - something not ignored by homeopaths, Ayurvedic medicine or TCM. Dr Clare Craig gave an interesting short talk online essentially saying that no one knows how flu is transmitted. Not surprising that its name means 'influence'. Fifteen years ago I had horrible flu - pretty well bedridden for 3 weeks then couch bound for a week. I managed somehow to stagger out in the middle of it to a celebratory meal for R's 60th birthday - with about ten of his colleagues. None of them caught it. No one else in the household caught it either!! When I had a fairly mild dose of covid (probably - ill in a way very different from ever before) in April 2020, we followed the rules (how naive we were!) and R decamped to a spare room (I had a delightful 'retreat' all food and drink included). We'd been together all the time for the few days previously when I felt decidedly 'off', but he didn't catch it. Pasteur himself '..... stated, "The presence in the body of a pathogenic agent is not necessarily synonymous with infectious disease."
Thank you kindly! Now that is a darn interesting comment that backs up my own experience - I better get to watch Clare's talk. I've got Hope-Simpson's book on order (haven't told Mrs Dee the price yet) to see what they have to say on the matter. My mind is boggling on what it would mean to society at large if colds/flu/COVID are not transmissible as claimed.
In early December we had a family dinner of nine people. Five of us at one end of the table all came down with covid in the following few days. One of the five of us had had covid previously (that we know of).
On the other hand, earlier in the year, our daughter had covid twice (she wasn't at the dinner) and none of us caught it from her either of those times. It is definitely a puzzler.
Agreed: but for some reason choirs seem to be 'superspreader' events : not that everyone gets it, but often several people do: including my sister who is a choir-singer.
I picked up Covid/Omicron in April somehow, and gifted it to both of my family members: pretty mild cases: oddly enough I had only one social contact the week before really, a committee meeting, and as far as I know nobody else there caught it.
Enjoyed reading your comment. Many of are now giving serious thought to the spread or contagion, it was this that led me to explore Germ/Terrain question. Good point about the emotional and psychological state can have a detrimental effect on health, often a beneficial effect. I struggled to understand the seemingly simultaneous outbreaks, but question why aren’t everyone affected! So I ask do viruses actually exist and are flu and colds just the body detoxing. (Many interesting video/articles around) Apparently no one has ever isolated and purified a virus particle, (by following Koch’s postulates) The method of “proving” the existence seems dubious to my limited understanding (ref https://drsambailey.com/download/7580/)
Any image (micrograph) that we see from an electron microscope only uses size and shape as “proof”. But as Dr Harold Hillman 20 years ago, the processes in preparing the sample so distorts any particle as to make it useless. (https://youtu.be/j4U6wiVcw-o).
So if we can use the Large Hadron Collider to smash much smaller particles, why has no one ever been able to produce a virus particle and do the same?
A friend was explaining how as a young woman living in a dormitory with others, they noticed their cycles began to synchronise. This video demonstrates sympathetic synchronisation - thinking further I wonder if this is how starlings behave during a murmuration, or shoals of fish in the ocean.
Dare I say... a smashing comment? LOL Back in March 2020 I would ask pretty much daily why our postman wasn't dead, along with why the same smiling checkout operators at Tesco turned up for work week in week out without so much as a snivel given this was supposed to be both a novel and deadly virus. The explosion I feared never happened and healthcare staff I knew were bored senseless, so the narrative unravelled pretty quickly for me. Aside from a few peculiar cases struggling in ICU all we appeared to have was the usual seasonal struggle (aside from the massive death toll in April 2020 as the elderly were shunted into care homes and placed on EOL pathways). It wasn't until I started looking at cases by region that I realized the virus could work miracles across space and time. This got me looking at influenza and the pandemic of 1918-19, and I found myself down a rabbit hole with no apparent end, and all the time frowning upon the extraordinary sloppiness and hazy notions within the virology industry. It seems like you can wear a white coat and make stuff up! Where this will take me now is anybody's guess, but I'm resolved to be hailed as a tin-foiler!
We have a friend who ran a corner shop and offie in the olden days. They sold most sanitary products, obviously in the immediate local area, in the space of about a week each month! Perhaps it’s more or less irrelevant what causes disease (within reason) and better to focus on a hygienic and healthy life.The Chinese Emperor’s job was to keep the Emperor healthy, not to make him better if he got sick. I’ll look at your links. I can recommend’Dissolving Illusions’ by Suzanne Humphries MD, about the murky history of vaccination. Full of interesting information.
An interesting read. A household member came back from a trip to Europe via ferry, in early September. 3 days later went down with cough and flu like symptoms, but on the whole continued his normal routines, going out daily. 4 days later I didn't feel great. The following day I decided to test. We all tested positive ( but who knows what actually for). Took nearly two weeks to feel normal. Just before Christmas the family member started again with flu like symptoms. He tested negative, and so far the rest of the household have remained well.
Now that is a doozy of a typo! Now corrected - thanks. Interesting dynamic you've got there. We have friends whose whole house (3 adults, 2 kids) went down with the same thing at the same time, all testing positive. Then they all tested negative despite continued symptoms, then symptoms came and went and positive results came and went. They've now given up trying to fathom what is going on.
My hypothesis. Flu not person to person transmission but region to region carried on the wind. A few days from continent to continent. Bacteria/viruses found at x thousand feet! Then immune system differences from many variables.
I like that. This is where my conversation with a pathologist was going until we were interrupted by daily chores. Atmospherics would also link to weather, climate and cosmic processes like solar activity.
I like that too. I have no idea how long these tiny particles can retain their lethality, but it might be possible for them to stay 'alive' in - say - cooler, moister, windy conditions (hence the seasonality of flu and colds) . And presumably - whilst rare - even one such particle might 'get lucky' and find a receptive human or animal host, given the high volumes of billions of them wafting around. Now, we know that virus particles can't exist independently of a cell for long, but how long? And what if they hitch-hike a lift inside - say bacteria?
"These viruses are called bacteriophages and they are extremely common. Around a quarter of the bacteria in the sea at any one time are infected by bacteriophages and they are so successful that the viruses often outnumber bacteria by a factor of 10. Bacteriophages have a strand or loop of DNA enclosed in a special protein sheath that acts like a hypodermic syringe. One end binds to proteins on the bacterial cell membrane and this causes the sheath to contract, puncturing the membrane and injecting the DNA. The virus’s genes are then automatically transcribed by the bacterium’s own cellular machinery, which builds hundreds of copies of the virus. After about 20 minutes the bacterium is so full of new viruses that it bursts open, releasing the viruses to infect other cells."
One way to test it would be to study meteorology and see if the virus outbreaks follow prevailing winds - as you say, it only takes a few days for a high altitude wind from China to reach us as it is aided by the earths rotation.
This might also explain why there have been so few cases in Sub-saharan Africa: there are no winds from Europe or Asia to Africa, and anyway they would be too hot and dry.
At some point I hope to be dialling-in my climate work to see if this sheds light. Dim down in my mind is a study revealing a link between transmission and temperature/humidity that I need to recall, and there are several controversial influenza/sunspot studies (that may be serving as a proxy for meteorological conditions). What we are facing are endless fun and statistical games! Yes indeed, this may explain Africa.
Just chatting to one of my friends in Ghana, and he is complaining that it is very cold.
He means that the temperature dropped briefly below 20C , haha!
When you think about Africa, they have evolved a totally different set of tropical diseases like Ebola and Yellow Fever, Malaria etc - and less of ours. Africa has always had human trade routes with the Mediterranean, so they would have had plenty of exposure to e.g. plagues.
However when white Europeans first arrived in more isolated Polynesia and Latin America, the natives suffered terribly from common western diseases like the cold and measles.
I tend to be lazy in my research efforts and also have only basic abilities in understanding scientific and technical material so what I look for are the undisputed facts, that is, the facts that all those disputing what's what agree on and see what can be told from just the undisputed facts.
These are disputed claims:
--- The virus, SARS-CoV-2, has been isolated and had its genome sequenced
--- The alleged SARS-CoV-2 is causing a respiratory illness distinct from other illnesses, COVID-19
--- An illness recognisable as COVID-19 is being transmitted in pandemic fashion
These are the undisputed facts:
--- There is no gold standard test for COVID-19, that is, no test is a diagnostic test, however, cases are determined by the results of these non-diagnostic tests not on the basis of a clinical diagnosis
--- COVID-19 does not have a distinctive set of symptoms
Judging by the undisputed facts alone there is nothing that says there is a pandemic of any disease.
What can anyone put forward that categorically refutes the claim there is no novel virus, SARS-CoV-2, there is no special disease, COVID-19, and there is no pandemic?
The 4th edition of the book I link to below is much cheaper than the one you've just bought, John, and I highly recommend it although if you look up the authors you'll find their work on video and online for free -
Oh, you haven't have real Covid if you didn't catch 'Covid-toes'!
"What you may see with COVID toes: The condition may develop on your toes, fingers, or both. From what we know, it seems that most people develop this only on their toes, which explains the name “COVID toes.”
The swelling and discoloration can begin on one or several toes or fingers, according to Amy Paller, MD, FAAD, who is a board-certified pediatric dermatologist and Chair of Dermatology at Northwestern Feinberg School of Medicine. At first, you might see a bright red color that gradually turns to purple. COVID toes can also begin with a purplish color.
Symptoms: Many people don’t feel anything and only realize that they have COVID toes when they see the discoloration and swelling on their feet (or hands).
Along with the swelling and discoloration, COVID toes can also cause blisters, itch, or pain. Some people develop painful raised bumps or areas of rough skin."
Gosh: a theory of everything! That will be fun! I look forward to purchasing all ten volumes!!!
"we need to figure population demographics, making adjustments for age, sex and occupation as well as accounting for trends such as smoking, environmental toxins, air pollution and the long term impact of WWII (manufacturing as well as conflict) to name but a few factors."
So intriguing! Another book to add to your reading list is the recently published, “Turtles All the Way Down, Vaccine Science and Myth.” (I have my copy!) You might want to read it at the end of your analysis, especially if vaccines do appear to play a role.
Peter McCullough, et al, recommend a nasal rinse/gargle 2-4 times daily with a weak hydrogen peroxide solution, both to prevent and to treat respiratory infections. Wouldn’t hurt, might help! Get well, soon!
As you note, a new ‘Rule 3’ had been trialed in British stats during that earlier period, but it was adopted as part of ICD-10 in 2001. It will be noted that the same effect is visible in American stats one year earlier, as the USA’s mortality statistics use ICD-10 from one year earlier.
I’ve not been able to establish just why the UK trialed a new rule 3 during that earlier period or why it (or something very like it) was adopted with ICD-10. But I have been lead to believe that pneumonia was recognised as something of a catchall. I’m sure you’ll understand much more about this than I do.
It’s a long time since I looked at this but my recollection is that the displacement by cause of death showed particularly clearly before and after the earlier trial (i.e. influenza and pneumonia went down, certain other causes went up, or vice versa). If anything this was less clear (causes more widely distributed) for the 2001 adoption, suggesting that, possibly, the version of rule 3, or its application, in the earlier trial was not exactly the same as that adopted in 2001.
Anyway, I hope the bridge-coding study is of some use, and I’m very glad to hear you’ve got hold of a copy of Hope-Simpson. When you get there, I suggest you pay particular attention to his comments on serial interval. Having read not only the book, but also numerous other papers, I came to suspect it was the absence of serial interval which really tipped him over the edge, as it were. Once you realise that the correlation between cause and supposed effect is absent…there’s no turning back!
Oh wow, what a cracking comment! Yes indeed, pneumonia dominated and I have a high degree of sympathy with those trying to refine the coding frame. The problem comes when we try and utilize data prior to 2001 and for this purpose I rely on statistical modelling in an attempt to level the playing field. I shall read the coding study with great interest - thank you.
Back in March 2020 I started questioning the fundamental assumptions underlying COVID contagion and these led me to look at classics like smallpox and polio. I confess to a growing unease with every new paper and new analysis that all is not right and never has been with the accepted models of pathogenic disease. I appreciate this makes me a 'tin-foiler' in the eyes of some folk but my curiosity is now too great to stop!
Back in March/April 2020 I dived into flu stats, not least because ‘It’s just the flu, bro’ seemed to divide people so. I discovered that the effects of influenza had, most likely, been grossly overstated. As someone who viewed school closures and lockdown as a dreadful overreaction, I found myself in a very lonely place, as people opposed to lockdown generally wanted to talk *up* the number of influenza deaths in order to show that the number of deaths attributed to coronavirus was not so scary.
Anyway, it’s my impression that using Influenza and Pneumonia (J09-J18) was for a time useful for historical research. Looking at the first half of the 20th century there really does seem to be a match up between peaks and known flu outbreaks and, when examining a period from before the virus had even been identified, these numbers would have been useful. As we move into the second half of the century, it appears to me that the correlation becomes much less clear. It is surely highly questionable whether J09-J18 tells us very much about the true toll of influenza.
When we look at actual influenza numbers (J09-J10), the introduction of widespread vaccination for the elderly is followed by a substantial drop in deaths, albeit on very low numbers and for a limited period, before numbers start trending quite sharply upwards, well above previous levels.
One effect of coding rules it might be worth noting is that most deaths for which the certificate mentions influenza end up with influenza being recorded as the underlying cause of death. I did find an FOI response from ONS which allowed me to calculate something like 75-80% for a period of about 10 years in the ICD-10 era. It obviously became normal for ONS to publicise the proportion of Covid deaths where Covid was UCoD, apparently to stress just how lethal it was. They did not, I think, mention that the proportion for influenza was very similar, or that the emergency guidelines issued for Covid ensured that this proportion would be nice and high.
Anyway, I’m very much looking forward to your further analysis of both the ONS data and of the many holes in Hope-Simpson’s colander. I hope you’re back to full fitness and well supplied with cake…just mind that serial interval!
The rapid growth of the plastics and chemicals industry in the 1960's and onwards took some heavy casualties, including my father in law, Alex, who worked in the Midlands making foam upholstery for car seats. He was exposed to Isocyanates, and ended up losing a lung, requiring regular use of a nebuliser. Astonishingly he survived to 87, but his last years were dogged with ill health.
Hope you feel better soon!
Getting there!
Thanks for the mention, and sorry to hear you've been unwell - get better soon, we need you!!
Thank you kind sir! I'm over the worst and am currently exploring tricks to wrap this thing up quickly.
I do hope you feel better soon. That's very interesting. I would include emotional along with physiological conditions as the two are so closely linked - something not ignored by homeopaths, Ayurvedic medicine or TCM. Dr Clare Craig gave an interesting short talk online essentially saying that no one knows how flu is transmitted. Not surprising that its name means 'influence'. Fifteen years ago I had horrible flu - pretty well bedridden for 3 weeks then couch bound for a week. I managed somehow to stagger out in the middle of it to a celebratory meal for R's 60th birthday - with about ten of his colleagues. None of them caught it. No one else in the household caught it either!! When I had a fairly mild dose of covid (probably - ill in a way very different from ever before) in April 2020, we followed the rules (how naive we were!) and R decamped to a spare room (I had a delightful 'retreat' all food and drink included). We'd been together all the time for the few days previously when I felt decidedly 'off', but he didn't catch it. Pasteur himself '..... stated, "The presence in the body of a pathogenic agent is not necessarily synonymous with infectious disease."
Thank you kindly! Now that is a darn interesting comment that backs up my own experience - I better get to watch Clare's talk. I've got Hope-Simpson's book on order (haven't told Mrs Dee the price yet) to see what they have to say on the matter. My mind is boggling on what it would mean to society at large if colds/flu/COVID are not transmissible as claimed.
Here she is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veSfwMZhZRA
Bless you! I was mustering the courage to ask Clare but that would mean admitting I didn't listen to her lecture.
Haha!
In early December we had a family dinner of nine people. Five of us at one end of the table all came down with covid in the following few days. One of the five of us had had covid previously (that we know of).
On the other hand, earlier in the year, our daughter had covid twice (she wasn't at the dinner) and none of us caught it from her either of those times. It is definitely a puzzler.
Agreed: but for some reason choirs seem to be 'superspreader' events : not that everyone gets it, but often several people do: including my sister who is a choir-singer.
I picked up Covid/Omicron in April somehow, and gifted it to both of my family members: pretty mild cases: oddly enough I had only one social contact the week before really, a committee meeting, and as far as I know nobody else there caught it.
Agree its a puzzler.
Enjoyed reading your comment. Many of are now giving serious thought to the spread or contagion, it was this that led me to explore Germ/Terrain question. Good point about the emotional and psychological state can have a detrimental effect on health, often a beneficial effect. I struggled to understand the seemingly simultaneous outbreaks, but question why aren’t everyone affected! So I ask do viruses actually exist and are flu and colds just the body detoxing. (Many interesting video/articles around) Apparently no one has ever isolated and purified a virus particle, (by following Koch’s postulates) The method of “proving” the existence seems dubious to my limited understanding (ref https://drsambailey.com/download/7580/)
Any image (micrograph) that we see from an electron microscope only uses size and shape as “proof”. But as Dr Harold Hillman 20 years ago, the processes in preparing the sample so distorts any particle as to make it useless. (https://youtu.be/j4U6wiVcw-o).
So if we can use the Large Hadron Collider to smash much smaller particles, why has no one ever been able to produce a virus particle and do the same?
A friend was explaining how as a young woman living in a dormitory with others, they noticed their cycles began to synchronise. This video demonstrates sympathetic synchronisation - thinking further I wonder if this is how starlings behave during a murmuration, or shoals of fish in the ocean.
Hopefully (https://youtu.be/5v5eBf2KwF8)
I have a chap better explain this on a TickTock video but can’t share it here.
Dare I say... a smashing comment? LOL Back in March 2020 I would ask pretty much daily why our postman wasn't dead, along with why the same smiling checkout operators at Tesco turned up for work week in week out without so much as a snivel given this was supposed to be both a novel and deadly virus. The explosion I feared never happened and healthcare staff I knew were bored senseless, so the narrative unravelled pretty quickly for me. Aside from a few peculiar cases struggling in ICU all we appeared to have was the usual seasonal struggle (aside from the massive death toll in April 2020 as the elderly were shunted into care homes and placed on EOL pathways). It wasn't until I started looking at cases by region that I realized the virus could work miracles across space and time. This got me looking at influenza and the pandemic of 1918-19, and I found myself down a rabbit hole with no apparent end, and all the time frowning upon the extraordinary sloppiness and hazy notions within the virology industry. It seems like you can wear a white coat and make stuff up! Where this will take me now is anybody's guess, but I'm resolved to be hailed as a tin-foiler!
Just tweeted the short tick-tock video on your twitter page.
I’m sure you will have done some digging into the Rosenau experiment during the 2018 flu thing, maybe some of your readers won’t have.
Thanks for opening doors into areas we miss. 👍
Just clocked that - I need another cuppa before I get stuck in!
We have a friend who ran a corner shop and offie in the olden days. They sold most sanitary products, obviously in the immediate local area, in the space of about a week each month! Perhaps it’s more or less irrelevant what causes disease (within reason) and better to focus on a hygienic and healthy life.The Chinese Emperor’s job was to keep the Emperor healthy, not to make him better if he got sick. I’ll look at your links. I can recommend’Dissolving Illusions’ by Suzanne Humphries MD, about the murky history of vaccination. Full of interesting information.
And obviously it’s about the host not the pathogen or we’d all catch everything all the time.
Have a look at the sympathetic synchronisation video!
Hope you are better soon John.
Typo? Presume you meant to 1919 for Spanish Flu.
An interesting read. A household member came back from a trip to Europe via ferry, in early September. 3 days later went down with cough and flu like symptoms, but on the whole continued his normal routines, going out daily. 4 days later I didn't feel great. The following day I decided to test. We all tested positive ( but who knows what actually for). Took nearly two weeks to feel normal. Just before Christmas the family member started again with flu like symptoms. He tested negative, and so far the rest of the household have remained well.
Now that is a doozy of a typo! Now corrected - thanks. Interesting dynamic you've got there. We have friends whose whole house (3 adults, 2 kids) went down with the same thing at the same time, all testing positive. Then they all tested negative despite continued symptoms, then symptoms came and went and positive results came and went. They've now given up trying to fathom what is going on.
One post.... lots of info. Political manupulation of data. Potential reason. Potential to overturn infectious "flu" and get well soon.
I though we'd start the New Year with a zingy salad with crunchy bits!
My hypothesis. Flu not person to person transmission but region to region carried on the wind. A few days from continent to continent. Bacteria/viruses found at x thousand feet! Then immune system differences from many variables.
I like that. This is where my conversation with a pathologist was going until we were interrupted by daily chores. Atmospherics would also link to weather, climate and cosmic processes like solar activity.
I like that too. I have no idea how long these tiny particles can retain their lethality, but it might be possible for them to stay 'alive' in - say - cooler, moister, windy conditions (hence the seasonality of flu and colds) . And presumably - whilst rare - even one such particle might 'get lucky' and find a receptive human or animal host, given the high volumes of billions of them wafting around. Now, we know that virus particles can't exist independently of a cell for long, but how long? And what if they hitch-hike a lift inside - say bacteria?
"These viruses are called bacteriophages and they are extremely common. Around a quarter of the bacteria in the sea at any one time are infected by bacteriophages and they are so successful that the viruses often outnumber bacteria by a factor of 10. Bacteriophages have a strand or loop of DNA enclosed in a special protein sheath that acts like a hypodermic syringe. One end binds to proteins on the bacterial cell membrane and this causes the sheath to contract, puncturing the membrane and injecting the DNA. The virus’s genes are then automatically transcribed by the bacterium’s own cellular machinery, which builds hundreds of copies of the virus. After about 20 minutes the bacterium is so full of new viruses that it bursts open, releasing the viruses to infect other cells."
One way to test it would be to study meteorology and see if the virus outbreaks follow prevailing winds - as you say, it only takes a few days for a high altitude wind from China to reach us as it is aided by the earths rotation.
This might also explain why there have been so few cases in Sub-saharan Africa: there are no winds from Europe or Asia to Africa, and anyway they would be too hot and dry.
At some point I hope to be dialling-in my climate work to see if this sheds light. Dim down in my mind is a study revealing a link between transmission and temperature/humidity that I need to recall, and there are several controversial influenza/sunspot studies (that may be serving as a proxy for meteorological conditions). What we are facing are endless fun and statistical games! Yes indeed, this may explain Africa.
Just chatting to one of my friends in Ghana, and he is complaining that it is very cold.
He means that the temperature dropped briefly below 20C , haha!
When you think about Africa, they have evolved a totally different set of tropical diseases like Ebola and Yellow Fever, Malaria etc - and less of ours. Africa has always had human trade routes with the Mediterranean, so they would have had plenty of exposure to e.g. plagues.
However when white Europeans first arrived in more isolated Polynesia and Latin America, the natives suffered terribly from common western diseases like the cold and measles.
This would be fascinating.
Thanks, this is super-interesting! Plus, I really enjoy the way you write.
I hope you soon feel better.
Why thank you kindly. I'm currently trying out red wine therapy... :-)
I've been using large doses of that since the first lockdown, and it has worked, in the sense that I am not dead, yet.
Ditto!
"If I was feeling cheeky I’d suggest that this was enacted to make flu vaccines look good, ... "
Without a doubt.
Was there a 1918-19 flu pandemic that originated in Spain or was there another illness that originated in the Base Hospital, Fort Riley, Kansas?
https://themillenniumreport.com/2018/11/spanish-flu-of-1918-was-really-a-bioterror-attack-on-humanity/
I tend to be lazy in my research efforts and also have only basic abilities in understanding scientific and technical material so what I look for are the undisputed facts, that is, the facts that all those disputing what's what agree on and see what can be told from just the undisputed facts.
These are disputed claims:
--- The virus, SARS-CoV-2, has been isolated and had its genome sequenced
--- The alleged SARS-CoV-2 is causing a respiratory illness distinct from other illnesses, COVID-19
--- An illness recognisable as COVID-19 is being transmitted in pandemic fashion
These are the undisputed facts:
--- There is no gold standard test for COVID-19, that is, no test is a diagnostic test, however, cases are determined by the results of these non-diagnostic tests not on the basis of a clinical diagnosis
--- COVID-19 does not have a distinctive set of symptoms
Judging by the undisputed facts alone there is nothing that says there is a pandemic of any disease.
What can anyone put forward that categorically refutes the claim there is no novel virus, SARS-CoV-2, there is no special disease, COVID-19, and there is no pandemic?
The 4th edition of the book I link to below is much cheaper than the one you've just bought, John, and I highly recommend it although if you look up the authors you'll find their work on video and online for free -
Dr Sam Bailey's substack - https://drsambailey.substack.com/
Virus Mania
Torsten Engelbrecht, Dr Claus Köhnlein (MD), Dr Samantha Bailey (MD), Dr Stefano Scoglio (PhD)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Virus-Mania-COVID-19-Hepatitis-Billion-Dollar/dp/3752629789
I also highly recommend the five-episode video series, The Viral Delusion, the first episode of which is free.
www.theviraldelusion.com
Oh, you haven't have real Covid if you didn't catch 'Covid-toes'!
"What you may see with COVID toes: The condition may develop on your toes, fingers, or both. From what we know, it seems that most people develop this only on their toes, which explains the name “COVID toes.”
The swelling and discoloration can begin on one or several toes or fingers, according to Amy Paller, MD, FAAD, who is a board-certified pediatric dermatologist and Chair of Dermatology at Northwestern Feinberg School of Medicine. At first, you might see a bright red color that gradually turns to purple. COVID toes can also begin with a purplish color.
Symptoms: Many people don’t feel anything and only realize that they have COVID toes when they see the discoloration and swelling on their feet (or hands).
Along with the swelling and discoloration, COVID toes can also cause blisters, itch, or pain. Some people develop painful raised bumps or areas of rough skin."
https://www.aad.org/public/diseases/coronavirus/covid-toes#:~:text=of%20rough%20skin.-,COVID%20toes%3A%20One%20or%20more%20toes%20may%20swell%20and%20turn,cream%20to%20the%20affected%20area.
Gosh: a theory of everything! That will be fun! I look forward to purchasing all ten volumes!!!
"we need to figure population demographics, making adjustments for age, sex and occupation as well as accounting for trends such as smoking, environmental toxins, air pollution and the long term impact of WWII (manufacturing as well as conflict) to name but a few factors."
I am going to call it 'MY BIG TOE'...
So intriguing! Another book to add to your reading list is the recently published, “Turtles All the Way Down, Vaccine Science and Myth.” (I have my copy!) You might want to read it at the end of your analysis, especially if vaccines do appear to play a role.
Peter McCullough, et al, recommend a nasal rinse/gargle 2-4 times daily with a weak hydrogen peroxide solution, both to prevent and to treat respiratory infections. Wouldn’t hurt, might help! Get well, soon!
Thank you kindly! That book is somewhere in the middle of my reading pile. I rather enjoyed gargling with neat gin but shall try peroxide.
As you note, a new ‘Rule 3’ had been trialed in British stats during that earlier period, but it was adopted as part of ICD-10 in 2001. It will be noted that the same effect is visible in American stats one year earlier, as the USA’s mortality statistics use ICD-10 from one year earlier.
In the National Archives you will find this edition of Health Statistics Quarterly which, on pp31-41 contains the attractively titled “The implementation of ICD-10 for cause of death coding – some preliminary results from the bridge coding study.” This helpfully assesses comparability of ICD-9 and ICD-10 statistics. https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20160106043431/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hsq/health-statistics-quarterly/no--13--spring-2002/index.html
I’ve not been able to establish just why the UK trialed a new rule 3 during that earlier period or why it (or something very like it) was adopted with ICD-10. But I have been lead to believe that pneumonia was recognised as something of a catchall. I’m sure you’ll understand much more about this than I do.
It’s a long time since I looked at this but my recollection is that the displacement by cause of death showed particularly clearly before and after the earlier trial (i.e. influenza and pneumonia went down, certain other causes went up, or vice versa). If anything this was less clear (causes more widely distributed) for the 2001 adoption, suggesting that, possibly, the version of rule 3, or its application, in the earlier trial was not exactly the same as that adopted in 2001.
Anyway, I hope the bridge-coding study is of some use, and I’m very glad to hear you’ve got hold of a copy of Hope-Simpson. When you get there, I suggest you pay particular attention to his comments on serial interval. Having read not only the book, but also numerous other papers, I came to suspect it was the absence of serial interval which really tipped him over the edge, as it were. Once you realise that the correlation between cause and supposed effect is absent…there’s no turning back!
Oh wow, what a cracking comment! Yes indeed, pneumonia dominated and I have a high degree of sympathy with those trying to refine the coding frame. The problem comes when we try and utilize data prior to 2001 and for this purpose I rely on statistical modelling in an attempt to level the playing field. I shall read the coding study with great interest - thank you.
Back in March 2020 I started questioning the fundamental assumptions underlying COVID contagion and these led me to look at classics like smallpox and polio. I confess to a growing unease with every new paper and new analysis that all is not right and never has been with the accepted models of pathogenic disease. I appreciate this makes me a 'tin-foiler' in the eyes of some folk but my curiosity is now too great to stop!
Back in March/April 2020 I dived into flu stats, not least because ‘It’s just the flu, bro’ seemed to divide people so. I discovered that the effects of influenza had, most likely, been grossly overstated. As someone who viewed school closures and lockdown as a dreadful overreaction, I found myself in a very lonely place, as people opposed to lockdown generally wanted to talk *up* the number of influenza deaths in order to show that the number of deaths attributed to coronavirus was not so scary.
Anyway, it’s my impression that using Influenza and Pneumonia (J09-J18) was for a time useful for historical research. Looking at the first half of the 20th century there really does seem to be a match up between peaks and known flu outbreaks and, when examining a period from before the virus had even been identified, these numbers would have been useful. As we move into the second half of the century, it appears to me that the correlation becomes much less clear. It is surely highly questionable whether J09-J18 tells us very much about the true toll of influenza.
When we look at actual influenza numbers (J09-J10), the introduction of widespread vaccination for the elderly is followed by a substantial drop in deaths, albeit on very low numbers and for a limited period, before numbers start trending quite sharply upwards, well above previous levels.
One effect of coding rules it might be worth noting is that most deaths for which the certificate mentions influenza end up with influenza being recorded as the underlying cause of death. I did find an FOI response from ONS which allowed me to calculate something like 75-80% for a period of about 10 years in the ICD-10 era. It obviously became normal for ONS to publicise the proportion of Covid deaths where Covid was UCoD, apparently to stress just how lethal it was. They did not, I think, mention that the proportion for influenza was very similar, or that the emergency guidelines issued for Covid ensured that this proportion would be nice and high.
Anyway, I’m very much looking forward to your further analysis of both the ONS data and of the many holes in Hope-Simpson’s colander. I hope you’re back to full fitness and well supplied with cake…just mind that serial interval!
The rapid growth of the plastics and chemicals industry in the 1960's and onwards took some heavy casualties, including my father in law, Alex, who worked in the Midlands making foam upholstery for car seats. He was exposed to Isocyanates, and ended up losing a lung, requiring regular use of a nebuliser. Astonishingly he survived to 87, but his last years were dogged with ill health.