Weekly all cause death figures published by the Office for National Statistics do not stand up to scrutiny. The evidence indicates we are missing a bunch of young deaths.
I've just been checking the age-adjusted mortality figures for Scotland, up to Q2, 2022
When compared with (say 1990 - 2007), overall death rates are still down: from about 1700 per 100k to 1350 per 100k.
But note that the second quarter of 2022 shows an unexplained rise in 'Other' heart disease.
The pre-covid years are showing around 400 all-ages deaths a quarter, but suddenly this jumps to 523 in Q2, 2022.
Note, there are also 6 deaths noted as Covid vaccines adverse effects, but all in Q2 , 2021.
There were 64 deaths in the 15-24 age group in Q2, mostly males (n=48) - most male deaths (n=26) appear to have been external causes: murders, accidents, poisoning etc.
Its a handy dataset: easy to interrogate: what do you think?
Great: I'd appreciate that: you have some mighty tools in your toolbox, I am a mere dabbler duck - and a Muscovy one wearing a mask, in case you didn't notice !
We know it’s connected to the vaccine. They know we know it’s connected to the vaccine. We know they know we know it’s connected to the vaccine. That’s why they’re not rushing to correct these delays which are probably caused by hold-ups in the Coroners Court.
The Chief Coroner hasn’t issued an annual report since 5 November 2020. His last one covered two years. Covid is the go-to excuse for poor service everywhere especially in the public sector.
Woah! The AUG file is timestamped 12/8/22 whereas the DEC file is timestamped 13/12/22 so they should be different. I've asked Joel if he's clocked any differences.
I notice that people reading John's substack think the reason for the oddities is that the government is covering up something. From previous comments John has made about FOI requests to the ONS, I gather that they have been helpful to John.
The thing is that there could be all sorts of reason for the oddities in the data that have nothing to do with people trying to cover things up. Why can't it be as simple as this is a government bureaucracy and as such they are not very efficient? Or the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing? Or the systems are antiquated and it is not easy to organize the data? Or they never had to analyze data with this precision before and they are still scratching their heads on how to organize it, how to analyze it, etc?
It is crises like covid that clearly illustrate that government organizations are not nimble and effective at responding to changing circumstances.
My default option is always to assume good faith, too. It makes life less conflictual. Remember that most of these routine stats are compiled not by Mandarins or spin doctors but by humble toilers in the government vineyard, and that being on sensible index-linked salaries and with employment rights and trades unions, most of them would not deliberately deceive the public, of which after all they are a part.
On further reflection, I think I can see why Joel's figures show such a drop in the younger age groups.
You have seen from my Scottish stats that most younger male deaths are caused by external causes such as trauma, accidents, suicides and homicides.
Now, all of these kind of deaths require investigation by the Procurator Fiscal (in Scotland) or the Coroner (in the RUK). Clearly some of these investigations clog up a lot of time, getting police and pathology reports , and so on and so forth, and we also know that the Courts have a massive waiting list.
So: could this be the very simple explanation of the missing deaths? I suspect so .
Great point Rob, and this is where I'm putting my money. At some point, though, we are going to see an enormous hike in the death record of younger folk as the backlog is cleared.
Yes, but as the Q2 figures show in Scotland, the absolute numbers are going to be quite small: we are talking in the whole of the UK about only a few hundred young male deaths in total per quarter.
Yes, and that is why the more apocalyptic views are probably unhelpful.
Of course I am very concerned about any excess deaths caused by the vaccine - that goes without saying - but I suspect the absolute numbers of excess deaths in the younger aged groups might be quite small.
Actually my main concern is probably injuries, rather than deaths: I know deaths are more dramatic because you can count them, but what if for every death, there were five, ten or twenty long term injuries resulting in disability?
They say 'its cheaper to kill than to maim', and they are right: a healthy young person whose life has been wrecked is a massive long-term burden to society.
The trouble is, where will we find these statistics?
I suspect we need to look at a wider basket of indicators, such as any change in new disability claims in young adults for PIP and ESA.
Permanent Incurable Disability is a bit of a taboo subject in the NHS - doctors don't like it, precisely because it can rarely be cured or alleviated - and disabled people keep on coming back looking for help.
tbh, I don't know much about the history of vaccine injury, and even less about myocarditis. Why? Well, they are simply not 'sexy ' enough for heroic acute care, academic researchers are uninterested, and the victims often struggle on for decades in a sort of Limbo-land - usually involving their carers and families with some social work inputs from time to time. And it is very rare for the vaccine injury to be so specific that it can be proven.
So a disabled person becomes a disabled family. And the vaccine companies get away scot free - except that they now have a new customer for their pills and potions!
Typo here: "Baselines for the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022 were based upon repeating the 2025 -2019 pre-pandemic baselines; "
I agree the figures are fishy. Its a bit like the dog that didn't bark, isn't it, Holmes?
Oooo, now that is an ugly sentence! It now reads a little better. The dog that didn't bark is precisely the situtation.
I've just been checking the age-adjusted mortality figures for Scotland, up to Q2, 2022
When compared with (say 1990 - 2007), overall death rates are still down: from about 1700 per 100k to 1350 per 100k.
But note that the second quarter of 2022 shows an unexplained rise in 'Other' heart disease.
The pre-covid years are showing around 400 all-ages deaths a quarter, but suddenly this jumps to 523 in Q2, 2022.
Note, there are also 6 deaths noted as Covid vaccines adverse effects, but all in Q2 , 2021.
There were 64 deaths in the 15-24 age group in Q2, mostly males (n=48) - most male deaths (n=26) appear to have been external causes: murders, accidents, poisoning etc.
Its a handy dataset: easy to interrogate: what do you think?
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/births-deaths-and-other-vital-events-quarterly-figures/2nd-quarter-2022
Thanks for this - I'll have a fiddle...
Great: I'd appreciate that: you have some mighty tools in your toolbox, I am a mere dabbler duck - and a Muscovy one wearing a mask, in case you didn't notice !
We know it’s connected to the vaccine. They know we know it’s connected to the vaccine. We know they know we know it’s connected to the vaccine. That’s why they’re not rushing to correct these delays which are probably caused by hold-ups in the Coroners Court.
The Chief Coroner hasn’t issued an annual report since 5 November 2020. His last one covered two years. Covid is the go-to excuse for poor service everywhere especially in the public sector.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chief-coroners-combined-annual-report-2018-to-2019-and-2019-to-2020
I know: so I sent a very simple email to the Scottish Government Stats team today. I wonder if they will respond?
Rob <rob@xxxxx.org>
12:59 (6 hours ago)
to statisticscustomerservices
Hi, and thanks for publishing these figures in such a clear format.
You will probably have noticed the 2022 Q2 rise in 'Other heart disease' deaths, to 523, from a five year average of 427 (or 438).
This is rather worrying.
Do you have any explanation for this ?
Cheers,
If the data were updated in November - did we see the figures before the update? so can we see what the differences were?
Nice idea! I have the original file so can check.
Afternoon Dave, it might be sometime before I get to look at differences between releases so here are links to the source files for you
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/195WpvTQWDTLTa2rIeyzZBN-mfKuqHqdLkZauXTNhYm0/edit?usp=share_link
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UAg0y7Qwaq_9ptNykfhhvChMi5LbasngiKeR4G5gcYQ/edit?usp=share_link
thanks John - I'll take a look right now
Cracking stuff!
According to Excel's Spreadsheet Compare, the files are identical??? could you have misnamed one?
Woah! The AUG file is timestamped 12/8/22 whereas the DEC file is timestamped 13/12/22 so they should be different. I've asked Joel if he's clocked any differences.
Very interesting charts indeed!
I notice that people reading John's substack think the reason for the oddities is that the government is covering up something. From previous comments John has made about FOI requests to the ONS, I gather that they have been helpful to John.
The thing is that there could be all sorts of reason for the oddities in the data that have nothing to do with people trying to cover things up. Why can't it be as simple as this is a government bureaucracy and as such they are not very efficient? Or the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing? Or the systems are antiquated and it is not easy to organize the data? Or they never had to analyze data with this precision before and they are still scratching their heads on how to organize it, how to analyze it, etc?
It is crises like covid that clearly illustrate that government organizations are not nimble and effective at responding to changing circumstances.
My default option is always to assume good faith, too. It makes life less conflictual. Remember that most of these routine stats are compiled not by Mandarins or spin doctors but by humble toilers in the government vineyard, and that being on sensible index-linked salaries and with employment rights and trades unions, most of them would not deliberately deceive the public, of which after all they are a part.
On further reflection, I think I can see why Joel's figures show such a drop in the younger age groups.
You have seen from my Scottish stats that most younger male deaths are caused by external causes such as trauma, accidents, suicides and homicides.
Now, all of these kind of deaths require investigation by the Procurator Fiscal (in Scotland) or the Coroner (in the RUK). Clearly some of these investigations clog up a lot of time, getting police and pathology reports , and so on and so forth, and we also know that the Courts have a massive waiting list.
So: could this be the very simple explanation of the missing deaths? I suspect so .
Great point Rob, and this is where I'm putting my money. At some point, though, we are going to see an enormous hike in the death record of younger folk as the backlog is cleared.
Yes, but as the Q2 figures show in Scotland, the absolute numbers are going to be quite small: we are talking in the whole of the UK about only a few hundred young male deaths in total per quarter.
Yes, we are talking small absolutes - I hope folk are paying attention to the y axis scaling!
Yes, and that is why the more apocalyptic views are probably unhelpful.
Of course I am very concerned about any excess deaths caused by the vaccine - that goes without saying - but I suspect the absolute numbers of excess deaths in the younger aged groups might be quite small.
Actually my main concern is probably injuries, rather than deaths: I know deaths are more dramatic because you can count them, but what if for every death, there were five, ten or twenty long term injuries resulting in disability?
They say 'its cheaper to kill than to maim', and they are right: a healthy young person whose life has been wrecked is a massive long-term burden to society.
The trouble is, where will we find these statistics?
I suspect we need to look at a wider basket of indicators, such as any change in new disability claims in young adults for PIP and ESA.
Permanent Incurable Disability is a bit of a taboo subject in the NHS - doctors don't like it, precisely because it can rarely be cured or alleviated - and disabled people keep on coming back looking for help.
tbh, I don't know much about the history of vaccine injury, and even less about myocarditis. Why? Well, they are simply not 'sexy ' enough for heroic acute care, academic researchers are uninterested, and the victims often struggle on for decades in a sort of Limbo-land - usually involving their carers and families with some social work inputs from time to time. And it is very rare for the vaccine injury to be so specific that it can be proven.
So a disabled person becomes a disabled family. And the vaccine companies get away scot free - except that they now have a new customer for their pills and potions!