My morning session has to come to an end shortly but in tomorrow's newsletter I'll be summing the excess and providing a link to all the data that will sit on a shared Google Drive. This will include all ONS source files. Hyperlinks to these are embedded in my Excel master sheet so you can trace the origin of every single entry.
I presume there is zero regional data. I'd like to test the theory that all regions rose synchronously, ie there is no spatial component whatsoever suggestive of "spread" (though aware that spatial characteristics could be due to other things - like spread of fear or policy).
Oooo - now that's a cracking idea! There are regional breakdowns but not by week, though I'd need to trawl through all the source files just to double-check.
Exactly. This acceleration is so sudden and so well-defined (80+ females in care) that the only conclusion I can reach is implementation of end-of-life care pathways for people who were not suffering from COVID and not necessarily at the end of their life. Iatrogenic death is the fancy phrase - a court will need to ascertain whether this could be construed as murder or manslaughter.
Of course a Court has to have the final say ( if they ever bother to actually address the elephant in the room) BUT imho the act was deliberate and as medical professionals that would have known the outcome of their interventions and lack of interventions.
Those are deaths of neglect. Unfortunately (at least here in the US) nursing homes tend to be understaffed and it's common for more subtle health deterioration to go unnoticed by them but brought to their attention by family members. For instance, the elderly get dehydrated very very quickly and those with dementia literally don't remember to drink. They need constant attention. Deaths related to Alzheimer's/dementia were much higher than previous years during week 10 to week 20 of 2020 (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm), which coincides with COVID restrictions to visitation. These are predominantly in women due to their over representation in the elderly and nursing home population (they live longer on average). After seeing the data on Alzheimer's deaths and reading the Inspector General's investigation report on the Soldier's Home in Holyoke (Massachusetts), I was convinced those were deaths of neglect.
Judging by the low levels from week 2020:22 to - well the end of the graph pretty much, these were deaths brought forwards by on average about 6 months to a year.
I used to nurse very frail elderly people, and their lives really can hang on a thread for months, so whilst this is distressing, maybe the individual circumstances were not especially tragic. There is much more to life than longevity: quality of life in the final months is exceptionally poor.
I'm not using this as an excuse for poor quality care, if indeed that is what we are seeing, but rather as mitigating circumstances in a fast moving and rapidly panicking population of very frail people (and their carers)
Shocking. I see that nearly 3000 is the peak, but I am trying to sum the total number of excess for say weeks 13 to 22 please?
Can you share the source data for the chart in tabular form?
Thanks
My morning session has to come to an end shortly but in tomorrow's newsletter I'll be summing the excess and providing a link to all the data that will sit on a shared Google Drive. This will include all ONS source files. Hyperlinks to these are embedded in my Excel master sheet so you can trace the origin of every single entry.
Newsletter with all the goodies is freshly baked and on the shelf!
Thanks so much.
I presume there is zero regional data. I'd like to test the theory that all regions rose synchronously, ie there is no spatial component whatsoever suggestive of "spread" (though aware that spatial characteristics could be due to other things - like spread of fear or policy).
Oooo - now that's a cracking idea! There are regional breakdowns but not by week, though I'd need to trawl through all the source files just to double-check.
Just found this. Tables 5 & 6 are what you need...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19inthecaresectorenglandandwales
Thank you, but sadly my graphing skills are virtually non-existent so I rely on far cleverer people like you to do that....!
LOL - I'm up at 5am with crayons in hand!
Avid fan of crayon visuals 😉
In view of the following "deficit" it would appear that these deaths were "accelerated". This appears deliberate. Why is there no inquiry?
Exactly. This acceleration is so sudden and so well-defined (80+ females in care) that the only conclusion I can reach is implementation of end-of-life care pathways for people who were not suffering from COVID and not necessarily at the end of their life. Iatrogenic death is the fancy phrase - a court will need to ascertain whether this could be construed as murder or manslaughter.
Presumably the source data is robust enough (given it's from the ONS) to stand up in court? Is there any possible defence argument?
I'll leave that to the legals!
Of course a Court has to have the final say ( if they ever bother to actually address the elephant in the room) BUT imho the act was deliberate and as medical professionals that would have known the outcome of their interventions and lack of interventions.
Those are deaths of neglect. Unfortunately (at least here in the US) nursing homes tend to be understaffed and it's common for more subtle health deterioration to go unnoticed by them but brought to their attention by family members. For instance, the elderly get dehydrated very very quickly and those with dementia literally don't remember to drink. They need constant attention. Deaths related to Alzheimer's/dementia were much higher than previous years during week 10 to week 20 of 2020 (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm), which coincides with COVID restrictions to visitation. These are predominantly in women due to their over representation in the elderly and nursing home population (they live longer on average). After seeing the data on Alzheimer's deaths and reading the Inspector General's investigation report on the Soldier's Home in Holyoke (Massachusetts), I was convinced those were deaths of neglect.
Correction: not the Inspector General's report, but the report of the Joint Oversight Committee.
https://malegislature.gov/Commissions/Detail/518/Documents
Judging by the low levels from week 2020:22 to - well the end of the graph pretty much, these were deaths brought forwards by on average about 6 months to a year.
I used to nurse very frail elderly people, and their lives really can hang on a thread for months, so whilst this is distressing, maybe the individual circumstances were not especially tragic. There is much more to life than longevity: quality of life in the final months is exceptionally poor.
I'm not using this as an excuse for poor quality care, if indeed that is what we are seeing, but rather as mitigating circumstances in a fast moving and rapidly panicking population of very frail people (and their carers)