Pandemic En Croûte

Something a little special for independence day: using generalised linear modelling to reveal just how flaky the pastry is (rev 1.0)

The traditional recipe for a pandemic uses just two ingredients that are lightly flambéed in a copper vessel, these being people and a virus. A variant on this is pandemic en croûte in which we find people wrapped in a crust of politicians over a thick layer of irresponsible mainstream and social media, and dusted with extraordinary amounts of unnecessary viral testing. Surprisingly, pandemic en croûte doesn’t need a bold virus as such; just a few breadcrumbs seasoned to taste and look like a virus sufficient to fool even the most critical of food critics. A bit like a Gregg’s sausage roll.

Independence Is Key

Today I am going to reveal a few secrets behind the art of baking a good pandemic en croûte and the most important tool will be a well-chilled rolling pin we call generalised linear modelling (GLM). We must start with a basic equation:

Equation 1:

Cases being detected = what the virus is doing + what is happening on the testing front

That little ‘+’ sign is very important, for in the…