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Incredible stuff. If this was a capital markets pie, you'd be very well fed!

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Do the ONS not know this? They are (presumably thinking) statisticians aren’t they?

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Presumably, but all government suits are locked down in that they are not free to do work or think outside of a very narrow remit. When I sat for my interview to join the Scientific Civil Service back in 1985 one crusty bod asked, "up to now you've been free to undertake your own research work as a PhD but when you join the service you'll not be free to pursue ideas as you please, how does this sit with you?" I mumbled something about wishing to serve my country.

When I made Senior Scientific Officer a few years later and rubbed shoulders with policy suits and ministers it was made clear to me in no uncertain terms that I should direct my work and thinking along very clear lines. Thinking wasn't allowed!

Back in the mid '90s as a Principle Scientific Officer I used to sit down with very senior suits at the ONS as a representative of two government departments. Their thinking was as narrow as narrow can be. It would not surprise me if no officer is permitted to even whisper this stuff, though many would be capable.

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Coming up... Pandemic Au Naturel whereby I go full geek and tackle serial autocorrelation within multiple regression in order to squeeze out a more robust model from my nozzle. Not for the faint-hearted.

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