Primary Clinical Outcomes For A Single Emergency Department 2017 - 2021 (part 5)
SMLR modelling of 1.9 million admissions records for the emergency departments of an undisclosed NHS Trust: the healthy vaccinee effect revealed
Back in part 4 of this series I ended with the question… are vaccinated folk different? They’re certainly different once they concede to experimental gene therapy but were they different before they got jabbed?
Sometimes known as the ‘healthy vaccinee effect’ or ‘healthy vaccine bias’, I’ve tackled this subject before when I analysed something I called PROD (prior risk of death) and discovered that unvaccinated folk were sicker than vaccinated folk prior to death. Today I’m going to look at this key issue again but in terms of predicted risk of treatment within the ED and predicted risk of post-admission hospitalisation.
The good news here is that the data dump provided dates of vaccination for dose 1, dose 2 and the first booster, which means it was possible to flag all possible scenarios for the sample of 1,530,522 adult admissions over the period January 2017 – September 2021. Here are those scenarios and their frequency of occurrence:
I’m hoping these categories are self explanatory. What we have here is a time machine whereby we know what each individual eventually decided to do when it came to getting the jab. An obvious first comparison to make is between the unvaccinated (control) group and those who were admitted who would then go on to get the first dose some time later. This rules out the effect of the vaccine and enables us to compare their basic health status in terms of risk scores for the two primary clinical outcomes. If we tighten selection to look at adult admissions prior to vaccine rollout then the table reduces to this:
These are people being admitted to the ED over the same time frame (2017/w1 – 2020/w49). At this point in time nobody had got jabbed but 839,554 of 1,283,184 (65.4%) were going to get jabbed shortly after. Let us then look at summary stats for the two primary outcome risk scores: