UK Personal Independence Payments & Accumulated Vaccine Doses (part 2)

A statistical rummage through the data held on UK GOV servers that reveals a strong correlation between COVID-19 vaccination dosing and cleared new claims for personal Independence Payments

In part 1 of this series I ranted on about flippant use of the maxim ‘correlation does not equal causation’ by expertistas™ and lay persons alike to bury findings that ought to be triggering a great deal of investigation by regulatory bodies and others. We’re floundering in a situation akin to running an emergency ambulance service with no 999/111 facility, no SW radio, no cellular transmissions, no phone line and no pigeon loft. Supping soma and arguing how the mRNA vaccines cannot possibly cause harm whilst people continue to perish is pretty much the stance taken by die-hard expertistas™, whom I am now calling VRDs (vaccine research deniers).

Ranting all done we saw a remarkable rise in new claims for personal independence payments (PIP) since July 2021 that correlated strongly with accumulated total doses administered to the nation of England. I brandished a spanner that goes by the moniker of autoregression using Prais-Winsten estimation to mop up serial correlation (and avoid being labelled a naughty boy) and we ended-up looking at a pretty convincing relationship to the tune of 247 new claims per million doses of elixir.

Today, Today And Today

Today I want to follow through with another slide that should raise an eyebrow, this being a dual time series plot of monthly new cleared claims with accumulated total administered doses for England for the period April 2015 – October 2022: