In this miniseries I try to fathom what COVID was supposed to be using a sample of 21,810 adult in-hospital deaths over the period 2020/w1 – 2021/w36 for an undisclosed NHS Trust
We've lived through the most bizarre time in history, where it's felt like the NHS has been at 'war' with us. The grifting, gaslighting, censoring and roll out of the mRNA biological product has been a tightly coordinated operation. The truth will eventually find a way to the surface and I really hope that brings us an opportunity to start again with a new, shiny NHS, that puts patients before profit.
Thank you for helping us to make sense of it all. As I see empty houses, where friends used to live and others with post vacciene immune system catastrophes, I'm very grateful to be unjabbed.
I could say it has been the worst of times and the best of times but then I'd end up sounding like Charles Dickens! The NHS I see before me today isn't how I experienced it 2001 - 2009, so it all feels utterly surreal. That being said the writing was on the wall back then with senior management tightening the screw at every turn, and with standardised protocols over-riding experience (centralised AI-driven care here we come!). One strategic 'suit' who came to dinner confided that plans for privatisation were already in place and that this was inevitable - all it needed was the right nudge, which may explain some of the senseless shenanigans.
The sales of private health insurance plans have been doing well - but of course, with an election looming and Labour coming back in, hopefully there might be a return to valuing our poor, dear, battered and bruised NHS. Its not really a question of whether we can afford an NHS: we simply cant afford any of the alternatives that have been proposed from time to time. And the last thing the NHS needs is another major reorganisation.
The Covid conundrum seems an evolving case, from what it was portrayed as early days, to what it then became, to what it actually was and might actually be, and every action that was undertaken around it. And thank you for being one also working through this.
On another note, must be going back about 20+yrs ago, when large ‘cost cutting consultants’, the same that orchestrated companies like IBM, large companies that had high turnover and little relative profit, how they went in, shook things up, cut those costs, so the client could then buy out other companies or whatever. They schmoozed with the current health minister and tried to apply what they did, to the health service. And without understanding what they did to those companies, is not the same as dealing with something like the NHS, without causing future problems. I personally have no faith in the current usual suspects of Conservative /Labour packages, not that there are not some good people in either, but the Starmer/Blair/Gates and handlers connection, pretty much also turns my stomach…..but who knows……
1. The first big rise in mean diagnoses precedes vaccine rollout, does it not?
2. Random idea: Say you take any variable. Then you associate that variable with just one specific time bucket, according to which time bucket had the largest "happening" with that variable. A "happening" may be something like "the largest change in the 7-day moving average of that variable, relative to the prior time bucket". Brute force this for every available variable. This is like every variable is a ball that gets thrown into one bucket, and at the end you count and see if any time bucket has an unusual number of balls. Or maybe better, rank the size of the happenings for each time bucket. Then sum up all the ranks within each bucket. Maybe this will pop "interesting" time periods such as vaccine rollout.
1. Yes, that first bump covers 2020/w44 - 2020/w50 immediately prior to first issue. If I can find time I'll start pulling the records apart to see what sort of inpatient was driving this. But... are those two teeth poking out or is it a dome of case complexity with a hole?
2. Love it! I've scribbled this in my big black book of things to try.
Pillar one testing included health and social care workers and those with clinical need and I think may have included people in care homes. However access to testing was really limited and tended to be reserved for the sickest people with symptoms who would often have had symptoms for a week or so before testing. It was only in the second half of the first wave that tested expanded and the definition of a case changed to PCR pos regardless of symptoms. Would this influence the lag between testing and death? Certainly it was the biggest difference between waves 1 and 2, who was tested and at what stage of their illness.
Yes, reserving those early tests for those who were already critically ill would certainly condense the timescale between test result and death and this may indeed be the driver for what we see. Not having a date of test and date of admission means the evidence is circumstantial - though it does force us to think around the problem!
I have created two reports that might be of interest. I will post here if there is a method or email to anyone wishing to see.
1) COVID-19 Policies and Outcomes from midazolam use.
Summary
This study examines the impact of midazolam use and public health policies using published data on mortality in England. Correlation between mortality and midazolam prescriptions during two peaks in deaths during 2020 and 2021 is demonstrated here, with all seven Austin Bradford Hill criteria confirmed.
2) John Ioannidis author of “Why most published research finding are false” may have published “false findings”, and other evidence of vaccine injury and death.
Ah! I don't have a website. Years ago looked at html and Dreamweaver and decided against. Is there an easy way to created URL's or do need to create a domain? I can upload to dropbox but that needs an email address.
I junked my website years ago and use Google Drive to share documents. This facility becomes available once you register for a Google account and Gmail.
We've lived through the most bizarre time in history, where it's felt like the NHS has been at 'war' with us. The grifting, gaslighting, censoring and roll out of the mRNA biological product has been a tightly coordinated operation. The truth will eventually find a way to the surface and I really hope that brings us an opportunity to start again with a new, shiny NHS, that puts patients before profit.
Thank you for helping us to make sense of it all. As I see empty houses, where friends used to live and others with post vacciene immune system catastrophes, I'm very grateful to be unjabbed.
I could say it has been the worst of times and the best of times but then I'd end up sounding like Charles Dickens! The NHS I see before me today isn't how I experienced it 2001 - 2009, so it all feels utterly surreal. That being said the writing was on the wall back then with senior management tightening the screw at every turn, and with standardised protocols over-riding experience (centralised AI-driven care here we come!). One strategic 'suit' who came to dinner confided that plans for privatisation were already in place and that this was inevitable - all it needed was the right nudge, which may explain some of the senseless shenanigans.
The sales of private health insurance plans have been doing well - but of course, with an election looming and Labour coming back in, hopefully there might be a return to valuing our poor, dear, battered and bruised NHS. Its not really a question of whether we can afford an NHS: we simply cant afford any of the alternatives that have been proposed from time to time. And the last thing the NHS needs is another major reorganisation.
Dr Kendrick wrote about protocols over experience in his last couple of articles :(
The Covid conundrum seems an evolving case, from what it was portrayed as early days, to what it then became, to what it actually was and might actually be, and every action that was undertaken around it. And thank you for being one also working through this.
On another note, must be going back about 20+yrs ago, when large ‘cost cutting consultants’, the same that orchestrated companies like IBM, large companies that had high turnover and little relative profit, how they went in, shook things up, cut those costs, so the client could then buy out other companies or whatever. They schmoozed with the current health minister and tried to apply what they did, to the health service. And without understanding what they did to those companies, is not the same as dealing with something like the NHS, without causing future problems. I personally have no faith in the current usual suspects of Conservative /Labour packages, not that there are not some good people in either, but the Starmer/Blair/Gates and handlers connection, pretty much also turns my stomach…..but who knows……
Thank you.
Kinda confirms what I am observing in the German dataset.
That's good to know! In part 3 I'll be estimating excess death for the data sample - the results are rather interesting.
1. The first big rise in mean diagnoses precedes vaccine rollout, does it not?
2. Random idea: Say you take any variable. Then you associate that variable with just one specific time bucket, according to which time bucket had the largest "happening" with that variable. A "happening" may be something like "the largest change in the 7-day moving average of that variable, relative to the prior time bucket". Brute force this for every available variable. This is like every variable is a ball that gets thrown into one bucket, and at the end you count and see if any time bucket has an unusual number of balls. Or maybe better, rank the size of the happenings for each time bucket. Then sum up all the ranks within each bucket. Maybe this will pop "interesting" time periods such as vaccine rollout.
1. Yes, that first bump covers 2020/w44 - 2020/w50 immediately prior to first issue. If I can find time I'll start pulling the records apart to see what sort of inpatient was driving this. But... are those two teeth poking out or is it a dome of case complexity with a hole?
2. Love it! I've scribbled this in my big black book of things to try.
Pillar one testing included health and social care workers and those with clinical need and I think may have included people in care homes. However access to testing was really limited and tended to be reserved for the sickest people with symptoms who would often have had symptoms for a week or so before testing. It was only in the second half of the first wave that tested expanded and the definition of a case changed to PCR pos regardless of symptoms. Would this influence the lag between testing and death? Certainly it was the biggest difference between waves 1 and 2, who was tested and at what stage of their illness.
Yes, reserving those early tests for those who were already critically ill would certainly condense the timescale between test result and death and this may indeed be the driver for what we see. Not having a date of test and date of admission means the evidence is circumstantial - though it does force us to think around the problem!
I have created two reports that might be of interest. I will post here if there is a method or email to anyone wishing to see.
1) COVID-19 Policies and Outcomes from midazolam use.
Summary
This study examines the impact of midazolam use and public health policies using published data on mortality in England. Correlation between mortality and midazolam prescriptions during two peaks in deaths during 2020 and 2021 is demonstrated here, with all seven Austin Bradford Hill criteria confirmed.
2) John Ioannidis author of “Why most published research finding are false” may have published “false findings”, and other evidence of vaccine injury and death.
That would be smashing - you can paste URLs in comments without issue.
Ah! I don't have a website. Years ago looked at html and Dreamweaver and decided against. Is there an easy way to created URL's or do need to create a domain? I can upload to dropbox but that needs an email address.
I junked my website years ago and use Google Drive to share documents. This facility becomes available once you register for a Google account and Gmail.
I have G Drive but never used. I have uploaded 2 files and given access to anybody that has a link. Not sure how to give you access.
Maybe this has done it Link sent https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CXbVelERBIV5xEbKxorMTf_wswnv5Xuq/view?usp=drive_link
https://docs.google.com/document/d/16p6T7dYH8A-ES3KYV3qGrePk94tyq5Cx/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=107572693762670072121&rtpof=true&sd=true
Yep, that's sorted it - cheers!