Why The False Negative Argument Is False
Investigation of the hike in care home non-COVID deaths in England & Wales during 2020 (rev 2.3)
Subscribers following my newsletter series on care home deaths since 15th June will have surmised three things:
There was a dirty great hike in non-COVID care home deaths over the period 2020/w13 - 2020/w20 that synchronously occurred across all 10 regions at a time of year when this was not expected.
Hikes in non-COVID care home death precede hikes in COVID death by 1 - 2 weeks across all 10 regions in a consistent manner.
Peak COVID care home deaths during early 2020 occurred during the very same week across 9 regions, with the peak for London appearing just one week earlier. That is to say, there is no evidence of the SARS-COV-2 virus steadily spreading through the care home population.
Judging by comments received these are not just points of curiosity but highly disturbing in their implication. Before we go any further let me just pop this slide down that brings together the non-COVID and COVID death counts for England & Wales for the period 2020/w1 - 2022/w3:
We now see that non-COVI…